(bespoke) more gains ahead after 15% gain in three months

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S&P 500 15%+ Gains in Three Months

With the strong rally in equities that closed out 2011 and rang in 2012, the S&P 500 is currently up more than 15% over the last three months.  Going all the way back to the late 1920s, the current period marks the 36th time that the S&P 500 has gained more than 15% in a three month period after not having done so for at least six months.  The table below highlights each of these periods.  We also show the index's performance in the three months following the first day of each period where the S&P 500 reached the 15%+ rally threshold.

As shown in the table, following most of these periods the S&P 500 continued to see gains going forward.  Of the 35 prior periods shown, the S&P 500 has been positive over the next three months 27 times (77%) for an overall average gain of 3.21%.  This is considerably better than the overall average for all three month periods of 1.76% (positive returns 62% of the time).

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