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本帖最后由 ctcld 于 2012-1-3 21:27 编辑
东方人信，西方人也信。
（ZT）
Does the combination of the start of the Iowa caucus today and stocks kicking off 2012 by jumping more than 200 points mean the markets will have a red-letter year?
It does for investors who believe in the “January barometer,” the Wall Street notion that – particularly in presidential election years – the market’s performance over the first five days can forecast the rest of the year. There’s some evidence to support the idea, but not all analysts think how a year starts has any impact on how it ends.
The impact of the January on the rest of the year does seem heightened during election years, according to research from S&P Capital IQ. “The first five trading days of the month serve as early warning signals,” Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist for S&P Capital IQ said in a written commentary.
The barometer is especially accurate at pinpointing up years. For instance, the January Barometer was correct eight out of eight times in predicting positive year performance during presidential election years, according to S&P. But the indicator tends to say less about down years — when the market has dropped in January, annual performance only followed suit half of the time.
Markets might hint at annual gains if today’s rally continues. But advisers warn against making investment decisions based off of the market’s early performance. Stock markets are likely to remain volatile for at least the first half of the year as uncertainty over Europe hangs over investors’ minds, says Scott Wren, senior equity strategist for Wells Fargo Advisors. “You’re likely to have some bad headlines and that will likely contribute to the volatility,” says Wren.
Investors may be better served looking at the economic reports released this month, such as manufacturing data and unemployment claims, says Wren, who thinks investors might be emboldened by data that shows a reduced risk of recession in the U.S. Wren says he is investing more heavily in defensive stock sectors for the first half of the year, such as health care and consumer staples, which should be less volatile than the overall stock market. He plans to reduce exposure to those areas and invest more in aggressive sectors, like industrials and materials, going into the second half of the year if investors begin to regain confidence in Europe.
Another reason why experts might be watching stock performance closely during election years: history shows that markets might hint at who will take the victory in November. A rise in the S&P 500 from August through October traditionally leads to the re-election of the incumbent president, according to S&P Capital IQ, while a drop has typically led to a new commander-in-chief.
牛牛赢了第一天似可嘉，如果能赢第一周方可歌，如果能赢第一个月才可吹。
熊熊要努力，千万不要去冬眠。。。
There is a popular opinion that stock price moves during the last trading days of a year and during the first trading days of a new year are highly predictable. It is related to the tax problem and "window dressing" effect.
Before December 31
Individual investors sell their losers by December 31 to get tax return. Institutions are also selling losing stocks to improve their portfolios ("window dressing"). On the other hand institution are buying winners for the same reason, that compensates effect of falling index price.
After January 1
Institutions heavily buy stocks after New Year to build a new portfolio. Many individual investors start buying stocks after New Year too. It looks like everyone wants to start a new life after a New Year event.
Therefore, one can expect falling stock prices during the last days of December and rising prices after a New Year event. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-1-3 10:02 PM
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发表于 2012-1-3 10:50 PM
