Legendary hedge fund manager Doug Kass - surprise list for 2012

George25

Legendary hedge fund manager Doug Kass - surprise list for 2012. The full article appears onThe Street.

1. The U.S. stock market, SPX  (1257.60 ↓-0.43%) DJIA (DJI 12217.56 ↓-0.57%), approaches its all-time high in 2012.

2. The growth in the U.S. economy accelerates as the year progresses.

3. Former Presidents Bill Clinton and George Bush form a bipartisan coalition that persuades both parties to unite in addressing our fiscal imbalances.

4. Despite the grand compromise, the Republican presidential ticket gains steam as year progresses, and Romney is elected as the forty-fifth President of the United States.

5. A sloppy start in arresting the European debt crisis leads to far more forceful and successful policy.

6. The Fed ties monetary policy to the labor market.

7. Sears Holdings (SHLD 31.78 ↓-3.40%) declares bankruptcy.

8. Cyberwarfare intensifies.

9. Financial stocks are a leading market sector.

10. Despite the advance in the U.S. stock market, high-beta stocks underperform.

11. Mutual fund inflows return in force.

12. We’ll see merger mania.

13. The ETF bubble explodes.

14. China has a soft landing (despite indigestion in the property market), and India has a hard landing.

15. Israel Attacks Iran.

ddd

基本认同！

bryanlie

NB, we will see

silicon_beaver

The last two are not US events, but likely true.

zmkh

Sears要破产？那么short Sears岂不是稳赚？这个预测也太忽悠了。该破产的公司多了，Nok, Rimm都像要玩完。其实真正肯定破产的是银行，像BAC这样的。

contr

What is ETF bubble?

George25

contr 发表于 2011-12-30 23:53
What is ETF bubble?

Probably there are too many ETFs in the market?

George25

There are currently about 1,400 ETFs. During 2012, numerous ETFs fail to track and one-third of the current ETFs are forced to close. There are several flash crashes of ETFs listed on the exchanges. The ETF landscape is littered by investor litigation as investor losses mount. New stringent maintenance rules and new offering restrictions are imposed upon the ETF business. The formation of leveraged ETFs is materially restricted by the SEC. (Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture.)

contr

Got it. Thanks

ddd

Further more,

Some of the possible improbables that I came up with while compiling my "15 Surprises for 2012" were not quite ready for prime time, but they can certainly serve as an addendum to that list.

Surprise No. 16: After it is disclosed that Bank of America (BAC_) is being forced to raise an additional $20 billion to $25 billion of capital, Brian Moynihan resigns as President and CEO of Bank of America.

Surprise No. 17: Reflecting upward-trending stock markets around the world, continued improvement in domestic high-frequency economic statistics and a contained European debt crisis, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) falls to the 10-15 level during the second half of 2012.

Surprise No. 18: Facebook's IPO fizzles. The new offering is priced at a $70 billion equity capitalization but opens flat and breaks issue price in the first day of trading.

Surprise No. 19: A second-half growth scare briefly lifts the yield on the 10-year U.S. note to over 3%.

Surprise No. 20: Similar to Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ_) former CEO Mark Hurd, three very high-profile executives of Fortune 500 companies are forced to resign after sexual harassment allegations.

George25

I do believe your surprise#17 the VIX will fall to below 15 as the US economy is going to recover and also Europ leaders finally find solution(s) to their debt crisis.

ddd

George25 发表于 2011-12-31 14:58
I do believe your surprise#17 the VIX will fall to below 15 as the US economy is going to recover an ...

Those were Doug Cass' addendum to his own original 15. Not Mine.