虫虫冲浪学习室

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Alternate Bat pattern

The origin of the alternate Bat pattern resulted from many frustrated and failed trades of the standard framework. The standard Bat pattern is defined by the B point that is less than a 0.618 retracement of the XA leg. Typically, the best structures employ a 50 percent retracement at the midpoint. Although there’s room for interpretation and other ratios in the standard Bat pattern, I began the notice a peculiarity in those M and W-type structures that possessed a 0.382 retracement or less at the mid-point frequently resulted in an eventual completion that was slightly beyond the expected 0.886 retracement in the standard framework. In many cases before I became aware of this alternate alignment, I would execute trades at the 0.886 retracement within the standard Bat pattern only to close the trade for a loss due to the lack of a reversal in the projected harmonic area. After slightly exceeding the initial point at X for the pattern and triggering my stop loss, many of these reversals would reverse shortly thereafter, usually at the 1.13 extension of the structure. Again, the defining element of these situations was directly attributed to those M and W-type structures that possessed a retracement that was a 0.382 or less at the midpoint. It took some time to differentiate the structures but the more I was “whipsawed” by these patterns the more I realized that further differentiation was required in these cases. Although the special situations for this pattern will be covered in greater detail later in this material, it is important to understand that such specification is required to differentiate the similar structures. It can be very frustrating to try to trade these two types of patterns without differentiating their structures.”


The Alternate Bat Pattern™, is a precise harmonic pattern™ discovered by Scott Carney in 2003.
The pattern incorporates the 1.13XA retracement, as the defining element in the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ).
The B point retracement must be a 0.382 retracement or less of the XA leg. The Alternate Bat pattern™ utilizes a minimum 2.0BC projection. In addition, the AB=CD pattern™ within the Alternate Bat is always extended and usually requires a 1.618 AB=CD calculation.
The Alternate Bat pattern™ is an incredibly accurate pattern that works exceptionally well in the RSI BAMM divergence setup.

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Shark pattern

The Shark Pattern is a new harmonic pattern that I initially released in 2011 in my Patterns into Profits course. Although I was aware of the price structure for quite some time, I needed to refine the identification parameters to discover the best opportunities. Essentially, the pattern is the primary structure that precedes a 5-0 formation. This structure is outside the typical M and W framework. It possesses a unique formation called an Extreme Harmonic Impulse Wave that retests defined support/resistance while converging in the area of the 0.886 retracement – 1.13 extension. In all cases, the completion point must include the powerful 88.6% support/retracement as a minimum requirement. In addition, the unique extreme Harmonic Impulse Wave employs a minimum 1.618 extension. This combination with the 88.6% retracement defines a unique structure that possesses two profound harmonic measures to define the minimum level. In many cases, the price action will retest the initial starting point of the pattern and define excellent opportunities to take advantage of a market that has moved to far too fast within a limited period of time. These structures typically possess over-extended price action that utilizes the “natural” state of the Extreme Harmonic Impulse Wave which is typically categorized with reactionary trading behavior. This pattern frequently defines excellent opportunities but these reversals are often sharp and require specific management strategies to capitalize on the phenomenon. In many situations, the price action will retest the prior support/resistance level and typically result in a limited counter trend move. This structure should be handled differently than the standard M and W patterns. In fact, the overall expectations in price action should be short-lived and seek to capture the clearest opportunities. The Shark pattern yields many accurate and aggressive reactions that can be successfully traded as long as a more active management is applied


The Shark Pattern™ is dependent upon the powerful 88.6% retracement and the 113% Reciprocal Ratio, works extremely well retesting prior support/resistance points (0.886/1.13) as a strong counter-trend reaction. Represents a temporary extreme structure that seeks to capitalize on the extended nature of the Extreme Harmonic Impulse Wave.
Demands immediate change in price action character immediately following pattern completion. Extreme Harmonic Impulse Wave utilized depends upon location of 88.6% level – these are minimum requirements. Requires an active management strategy to capture high probability profit segments.

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5-0 pattern

Although the pattern incorporates 5 points within the structure (X, A, B, C, D), the starting point of the structure (0) can be the beginning of any extended price move. However, the initial point X must possess a specific alignment with respect to the A and B point. The X, A, B formation of the structure is usually some type of impulse move. The XA projection that defines the B point ideally must not exceed a 1.618. Any extension greater than a 1.618 will negate the structure, as smaller impulse moves are preferred. The BC leg is the longest price length of the structure and must be at least a 1.618 extension of the AB length but it must not exceed 2.24. This tight range of 1.618-2.24 is a defining element of the structure. If the 1.618 minimum limit is not reached, the structure is not a valid 5-0. After the BC leg has reversed from that zone, the 50% retracement is measured from the B point to the C point. In addition, the Reciprocal AB=CD is projected from the C point (an equivalent length of the AB leg) to compliment the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). Although the 5-0 pattern is not a typical M or W-type price structure, the same principles within the Harmonic Trading approach are applied to these situations. The Reciprocal AB=CD helps define the general area, while the 50% retracement pinpoints the precise range of the harmonic zone. The following illustrations and examples will clearly explain these concepts.”



The 5-0 pattern®, was discovered by Scott Carney and released in his book, Harmonic Trading of the Financial Markets: Volume Two.
Is a unique structure that possesses a precise alignment of Fibonacci ratios to validate the pattern. Although the 5-0 pattern® is considered a retracement pattern, as the 50% retracement is the most critical number within the Potential Reversal Zone, the measurements of the various price legs are slightly different than the Bat pattern™ or the Gartley™.
The 5-0 is within the family of 5-point harmonic reversal structures and is primarily defined by the structure’s B point – as is mandatory for all harmonic patterns™. However, the 5-0 pattern® requires a reciprocal AB=CD measurement to define the pattern’s completion.
The basic premise of the pattern is to identify distinct reactions following the completion of a contrary trend. Valid 5-0 patterns® typically represent the first pullback of a significant trend reversal. In many instances, the AB leg of the structure is a failed final wave of an extended trend.
The 5-0 is an incredibly precise pattern that possesses only two numbers – the 50% retracement of the BC leg and the Reciprocal AB=CD Pattern™.

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AB=CD Pattern

In this pattern, the A to B leg is the first price move. After a brief retracement from point B to point C, the pattern will complete the C to D leg, which is the same length as AB. Simply, after the AB and BC legs have been established, you project the AB length from point C… Although the price action will not always be exactly equivalent, the AB=CD legs usually will be close enough to determine the reversal points. Sometimes, this pattern will be exact but I usually wait for the CD leg to at least equal the AB leg.”

The Fibonacci numbers in the pattern must occur at specific points. In an ideal AB=CD Pattern™, the C point must retrace to either a 38.2% at a minimum to validate the structure.  The maximum retracement of the AB leg is an 88.6% level that defines a less extreme AB=CD pattern formation but still valid. This retracement sets up the BC projection that should converge at the completion of the AB=CD and be within a 1.13-2.618. It is important to note the reciprocal nature where a 0.618 retracement at the C point will result in a 1.618 BC projection while a 0.786 retracement at the C point will result in a 1.27 projection.  The most important consideration to remember is that the BC projection should converge closely with the completion of the AB=CD.

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谐波模式是我的最爱，网上有中文版PTF可以下载《谐波交易者》

宅家无聊写一些我的学习观点

1:谐波交易属于短线模式交易，所以入场要先等待确认模式完成后
2:日线级别的模式对应日线图的目标，小时级别的模式对应小时图的目标
3:谐波模式其实就像牛熊拳击比赛，第一攻击波段XA之后，观察后面三次博弈AB,BC,CD之间的强弱
4:第二波段AB的强弱决定了哪种模式：BC与CD的强弱决定了之后的方向
5:谐波交易在震荡区间很好用，因为可以很直观的感觉牛熊的动力强弱
6:5-0 pattern 与shark pattern 经常出现在顶部与底部，可以用来确认趋势的反转
7:谐波交易要与波浪理论结合才能发挥得更好，既所处位置的重要性，推动浪或回调浪，顶部还是底部。
8:AB=CD是最简单也是最重要的模式，股海谐波大道至简。

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记录百年一遇的2020年股市暴跌：历史会重演，只是以不同形式

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受油價崩盤影響，美股在2020年3月出现四次熔断。

2020年3月9日，標普500指數開盤後跌7%，觸發第一層熔斷機制。
2020年3月12日，标普500指数开盘後短时间内跌幅超过7%，再次触发第一层熔断机制
2020年3月16日，标普500指数开盘下跌220.60点，跌幅8.14%，触发当月第三次熔断
2020年3月18日，标普500指数盘中下跌177.29点，跌幅7.01%，触发当月第四次熔断

ice_tea

竟然没来过这里

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趋势之道


道法自然天人合一
股法趋势随波逐浪

人欲长寿法于阴阳
股欲长利随于跌涨

无生无死无古无今
活在当下天地逍遥

无顶无底无熊无牛
不系之舟股海飘流

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冲浪手图集，感谢胡同和蛇班长，这个学习股票的好平台

https://stockcharts.com/public/1386639

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无极生太极 ，太极生两仪
两仪生四象，四象生八卦
八八六十四，周行而不殆

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《趋势之道》

趋者奔也，势者力也
奔流动能，即曰趋势
趋势有二，各守其道
阴阳相生，周行不饴

其一周期，九九十八
通涨通缩，潮起潮落
四大市场，牛熊互动
无形之手，春夏秋冬

其二时代，时势英雄
长江后浪，拍死前浪
人类需求，梦与希望
生生不息，与时俱进

人生一世，草木一秋
日出而作，日落而息
潜阳抱道，以待其时
时来运转，股海泛舟

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个人推荐书籍：

技术修行篇

1:《日本蜡烛图》
2:《炒股的智慧》
3:《走进我的交易室》
4:《动能指标》
5:《趋势交易法》
6:《股市四大理论》
7:《谐波交易者》
8:《高级波段交易》
9:《金融市场技术分析》
10:《墨菲论市场互动理》

仓位风控篇

11:《超级交易员》
12:《通向财务自由之路》
13:《专业投机原理》
14:《华尔街幽灵》
15:《简易期杈》
16:《期权策略》

由术而道篇

17:《交易者心理分析》
18:《澄明之境》
19:《道德经》
20:《易经》

修行心法：
宁静致远，持之以恒


趋势交易者的境界：
与鱼同游，与鸟齐飛

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曾经的涂鸦作品收藏于此

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存档：沖浪手报告2021

撑过2020年的黑暗，迎接商品牛市的春天，拥抱经济复苏的黎明，，，

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存档：冲浪手报告2022


1:我们目前处于通涨初期，图表预测通涨周期将到09/2025。

2: 股市目前还很牛，但随着10年期国债收益率上涨将给科技股带来压力，股市将走弱如2003-2007年期间的走势。

3:股市走弱后我们将会看到传说中的股汇债三弱，商品独强的牛市

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存档：冲浪手报告2023

第1，2张图：通涨时期商品为王
   今年应该会看到传说中的股汇债三弱商品独强的市场。商品牛市周期时间推测02/2020–10/2029。换一句话说：通涨还有很长的路要走。

第3张图：滞涨时期黄金闪闪
   2022年前两季度GDP负零，标示我们巳经在滞涨时期中，在经济萧条的滞涨期黄金将会接力奔跑。

（注：去年的报告中我把股市类比2003年的通涨期是错误的，应该类比1970年代的滞涨期，股市无力上涨十年横盘。）


第4张图：股市黑天鹅红灯预警
   2年期与10年期国债收益率倒挂预示经济衰退，黑天鹅推测时间：05/2023–01/2024

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《趋势交易三元论》by 沖浪手

趋势判断，止损跟随，持仓长线

1: 不懂趋势，无止损无长线：
    短线进出沉迷快感

2:不懂趋势，有止损无长线：
   反复被止本金耗尽

3:不懂趋势，无止损有长线：
    价值投资全凭市场

4:不懂趋势，有止损有长线：
     常有小亏难有大利

5: 看懂趋势，无止损无长线 ：
   虽有技术难免被套

6: 看懂趋势，有止损无长线
     时有小亏时有小利

7:  看懂趋势，无止损有长线
     时有大亏时有大利

8: 看懂趋势，有止损有长线
     小亏大利久赌必赢

9: 看懂趋势，止损加仓长线
     奔跑利润完美交易

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    通涨时期商品市场中的板块轮动，由经济前景决定了各板块的涨跌起伏。

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存档：冲浪手报告2024

1: 来源于网上1970年代的通涨走势图，能够明显的看出CPI以三波的上涨形态至1980结束，时间跨度十年。我们目前的通涨起点为03/2020,时间跨度上看还太早说通涨周期结束，目前应该处于中场休息階段，还有第二波的通涨。


2:商品指数$CRB,10年期国债收益率$TNX与通涨的上涨动能都有所减弱，但依然在上升趋势中，保持商品周期03/2020至10/2029年的时间推测。 美股在通涨周期中由于高利率与货币紧缩的政策而缺少上涨的动能，应该是上下波动的无趋势状态。


3: 商品周期中的板块轮动，上半场的主题是通涨，由于通涨而推升工业金属与石油能源的上涨。下半场的主题是危机，如美债危机、美元危机，衰退危机、地缘战争等等而推升黄金、比特币等避险资产的上涨。（以太坊及各公链更偏向于web3.0加密技术科技创新公司）。


4: 滞涨时期黄金闪闪，黄金继续向上，牛市周期时间推测01/2016至06/2026。目标点位推测在图上。作为金融革命者的比特币应该会比黄金更强。


5:年年岁岁花相似，岁岁年年人不同。上一轮康波的萧条期在1973–1982年，这次的康波萧条期实际走势如何还需边走边看，以上观点纯属个人推测不构成投资建议，各位胡同新老朋友们新年快乐！