班车马上就到。。。

silicon_beaver

Read0nly 发表于 2011-11-18 08:26
老大太乐观了。
FA宏观看点：美国债务新高
FA微观看点：州政府拆东补西，节约开销的措施流于形式

US economy is slowly recovering.

Please read yahoo economy data. You can say Sams making number. But, but, but,... the fake number look better.



My interpretation when reading above yahoo data
PPI gets lower. i.e. no inflation .  
Retail Sales: up, better than forecast.
Manufacturing: up, better than forecast.
Initial Claims: lower than forecast. more people have jobs.
Housing Starts: at faster pace, more people buying house.

oldpigwang

Don't forget this:
Deep spending cuts are set to kick in if a congressional panel can't agree by Thanksgiving on how to shrink the budget deficit. And Congress may let emergency unemployment aid and a Social Security tax cut expire at year's end. Either outcome could slow growth and spook markets.

shyshark

montrealcc

George25

Thanks for sharing.

QWE

ctcld 发表于 2011-11-17 22:20
连跌两天，明天可能还有一脚。跌得好，跌出了机会。

如果真要找跌的原因，我看还是MM利用了政策的不确定 ...

上车容易，知道这车是开往哪里吗？呵呵，要是没搞清目的地，上错了车，就麻烦大了

ctcld

QWE 发表于 2011-11-19 09:30
上车容易，知道这车是开往哪里吗？呵呵，要是没搞清目的地，上错了车，就麻烦大了

这不劳您担心，只要不去澎湖湾，总能扎死一批濑熊。。

QWE

ctcld 发表于 2011-11-19 09:35
这不劳您担心，只要不去澎湖湾，总能扎死一批濑熊。。

看来牛牛们都打算去澎湖湾了

shyshark

Read0nly

silicon_beaver 发表于 2011-11-18 18:34
US economy is slowly recovering.

Please read yahoo economy data. You can say Sams making number ...

对这些数据俺没仔细看，只能说点儿俺的基本判断。

PPI和CPI： 可能同最近三个月的美元走高有关。对通胀，俺不太看重官方数据，更多的是看个人消费的实际感受。现在core rate一直这么低，外加OT，Low inflation 是短暂的。这是FED声言维持低息到2013年中的效应。可谁能保证不在此前加息。.  

Retail Sales: 看零售指数$RLX，周线的双头再明显不过了。在看今年Black Friday的减价商品，俺很怀疑会有Christmas rally。

Manufacturing: up, better than forecast. 这个好像是车销售的比重最大。Toyota又有Recall，对美车是利好。其他的好像一般。

Initial Claims: lower than forecast. more people have jobs. 这个有季节性因素，另外许多是短期雇佣，Radio里的分析已经不少。俺今天听到的Construction行当的失业率现在在30%。

Housing Starts: at faster pace, more people buying house.
QE和OT都是在救助银行。对房市的所谓利好消息俺基本上是根本不信。房市如有转机，银行的日子会好很多，看看金融板块的疲软，俺现在不敢碰了。对于房售增加，俺昨天看的地方报纸的数据是，房售增加，平均售价继续走低。别的地方是否如此俺不知道，管中窥豹吧。

俺不认为基本面有任何实质性的改观。当政府这些治标不治本的救市措施都失效之后，市场一定会显示本来的面目，那时会矫枉过正，大跌还没到。但俺不会一根筋做空，还是根据TA信号走。

Ed02

George25

there is a period of selling for year end tax purpose, so there may be no direction trading range with up and down days without big movement. After that there is a powerful up to the next year hopefully.