数据表明：下周一

JohnHsu

可上可下，向下肉肥险低。

Diver

silicon_beaver 发表于 2011-11-5 12:35
各主要指数的资金流向.
Look into finance. Friday was red, but finance was with positive money flow.
...

Yes, that is my 看涨理由6.

Also look at my chart 1 in my 看涨理由一 above (referring to post#12 in this thread). There were quite a lot money inflow into GS and BAC last Friday although they both closed in red, too. Those two picks along with XOM (also shown as “Buy on Weakness” above) are DJIA’s components. That signals big MM’s are going to push up major index next Monday.

We all know Eurozone debt crisis is a financial crisis and GS’s Q3 ER was surprisingly poor. XLF as well as GS and other bank stocks are supposed to be sold off at present. However, they have rebounded significantly and are turning strong currently. Thus, those “Buying on Weakness” means BULLISH for me!

By the way, many inversed ETF’s were “Sold into strength” last Friday. That is in agreement with the above prediction.

Diver

看涨理由7.
VIX abruptly dropped to new intraday low right before closing bell, while VXX did not move much and SPY did not rise to intraday high of the day. This suggests big MM’s wrote a great deal of puts before market closed. That signals they will squeeze bears hard next week and kill puts.

Diver

看涨理由8.
SPY (and many other indices and stocks) closed in red hollow bar on Friday while both SPY and VIX closed in red. That means it is very likely next Monday SPY will gap up open and close in green.

Diver

看涨理由9.
At the close on last Friday, many strikes’ out-of-money SPY Put options dropped down below last Thursday closing prices (I checked Nov and Dec puts) although SPY closed well below last Thursday closing prices while VIX closing only a little below last Thursday closing price. This is a sign that last Friday was a bears’ trap because whoever bought SPY puts since last Thursday and at anytime on last Friday are all trapped under water now, they will have no way to escape but cut meat next week.

Diver

看涨理由9.
At the close on last Friday, many strikes’ out-of-money SPY Put options dropped down below last Thursday closing prices (I checked Nov and Dec puts) although SPY closed well below last Thursday closing prices while VIX closing only a little below last Thursday closing price. This is a sign that last Friday was a bears’ trap because whoever bought SPY puts since last Thursday and at anytime on last Friday are all trapped under water now, they will have no way to escape but cut meat next week.

Diver

看涨理由10.
Last week, when SPY gapped down open from the top, there was an intraday P-bar pointing to close that gap. That will be the minimal target of this rebound.

Diver

看涨理由11. Last but not least, we should keep bullish biased now. Here is the reason.
I repeat here once again: The rally since Oct 4 is the real reversal from this year’s lowest level and not merely a rebound. The rally has more legs upside and it will continue till the end of this year. SPY 110 will not be revisited this year. Wake up, brothers and sisters! Bears have to forget about their bearish daydream. I will explain this in details in a new post when I have time.

Diver

Diver 发表于 2011-11-4 13:41
看涨理由五：
再次形成钻石顶（Diamond Top）。基于上述理由，我仍然和上次一样预计向上突破。

When this diamond top breaks out upside, SPY 200 DMA will not stop the rally again. The target of the expected breakout will be higher than SPY 130 (above previous high).

Diver

Disclaimer: I am holding SPY Dec Calls.

imtigerking

Your views are great and very reasonable. However, I doubt many hutongers will agree with or follow you.

Read0nly

谢分析。 理由二中的BB结合CHAN（20）看会更可靠一些。理由五中的CMF看着是明显在做M顶，周一或周二到顶，之后多仓一定得多小心。

Diver

Read0nly 发表于 2011-11-6 16:58
谢分析。 理由二中的BB结合CHAN（20）看会更可靠一些。理由五中的CMF看着是明显在做M顶，周一或周二到顶，之 ...

Thank you for your kind comment. Discussions are welcome.

You are right. There are some bearish factors on daily chart, although most factors are bullish. However, the weekly chart looks still fine.



This has been true for this rally since Oct 4, in fact.

So we should follow the bigger trend and ignore the smaller trend.

Diver

我给大家一个形象化的比喻：
前一个钻石顶时期相当于红军长征途中的四渡赤水阶段，目前这一个钻石顶是爬雪山过草地阶段。大家要认清形势，千万不要被眼前的困难吓倒了。

cat2011

Elephant

Read0nly

Diver 发表于 2011-11-7 12:12
Thank you for your kind comment. Discussions are welcome.

You are right. There are some bearish ...

"There are some bearish factors on daily chart, although most factors are bullish. However, the weekly chart looks still fine."

基本同意你的看法，日线看熊，周线看牛，大致是如此。

周线看，EMA20和EMA50非常接近，在下方构成支撑。Full STO刚金融80，还有上升的空间。MACD可以走低或继续走高。总体上支持还有第二段上升的两条腿的走法。但日线看着不乐观，MACD向下交叉会随时发生。如果的确发生的话，周线的MACD和STO都会在本周走平，下周掉头。这样的话，目前看到的周线和日线冲突就消失了。

今天三大指数收绿，RUT收红。感觉主力有借托市之机跑垃圾股的可能。欧洲的不确定性因素太多，做为利多的消息来炒作不太现实。这种情形下，基金可能会首先考虑的是避险，而不是赶年底的末班车，beat market。

Diver

Diver 发表于 2011-11-7 12:44
我给大家一个形象化的比喻：
前一个钻石顶时期相当于红军长征途中的四渡赤水阶段，目前这一个钻石顶是爬雪 ...

六盘山上高峰，
红旗漫卷西风。