Bravo To Papandreou!

greenback

Papandreou Is Peeling Back The Layers Of The Rotten Onion That Is The EMU

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/b ... 11-11#ixzz1cVG3PJJ7

The last time we had a referendum in Greece was 1974 when the monarchy was abolished and Third Hellenic Republic was established. Since 1829 there have only been 8 referendums in Greece, which ironically enough is very close to the number of defaults since that time at 5. Needless to say Greeks do not call referendums very often. To be sure, the Greek people, the Greek political elite and frankly the entire world do not have a great explanation for why Papandreou has gone for this very aggressive action at this time. One can however speculate which is what I will attempt do now. Here are a few bullet points on why I think this is being done right now:

· It is a basically another Greek blackmail scheme. The Greeks, led by Papandreou’s father, executed a blackmail scheme back in 1985 when they withheld a vote for Spanish and Portuguese membership in the EEC. Ultimately they received 30b in EU funds for a yes vote. This type of action is very typical of Greek political leaders - like father, like son.

· The protests at the parades on October 28th were extremely upsetting to the Greek political elite. To see broad based negativity on the bailout plans was very surprising, especially at such important and nationally sensitive events.

· Papandreou is actually doing the right thing for the Greek people. This is critical decision for the country. The people should decide if they want to take the medicine and stay in the EU, or reset the debt clock and go out on their own. This is no different than the British deciding to leave the ERM in the early 90s (although there was not really a referendum for that in the U.K., which probably is associated with the fact that they have a monarchy and the Greeks do not, in any case, I digress).

· There are huge costs to the EU project associated with the Greeks choosing to leave. The idea that any country in the EU is contemplating a referendum on exit will have EMU leaders quaking in their boots. In the end, Papandreou knows this and he is playing an aggressive card as we head into the Cannes G20 meetings where the Americans and Chinese are going to be driving EU policy more than Germany or France. This move could pay off very nicely for the Greeks with better bailout terms. Alternatively, the downside of exit is probably not as bad as staying in the zone under all of the agreed austerity conditions. In that sense it is a free option for Papandreou and the Greeks.

· From what I see Papandreou just showed the north who is boss in this situation – “It’s our debt, but it’s your problem” should have been the title of his announcement.

Bravo to Papandreou. He is peeling back the layers of the rotten onion that is EMU and exposing the Italian, French and Belgian situations for what they really are! I stand by the idea that the end game here is a Greek exit - and today's action gets us one step closer. Further, the turmoil in Italy and France gets us one step closer to a Eurobond that has Germany wrapping whatever remains of a tattered EMU. The EMU end game is German fiscal dilution and exit for the weakest links. In addition, this move by Greece may very well change the stakes at the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Ben has his bazookas loaded, he just needs a reason to say “Go ahead, make my day.” Good luck trading

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/b ... 11-11#ixzz1cVFayTEC

greenback

[世华财讯]希腊政府官员表示，该国政府内阁2日一致决定推进公投，而且时间可能是在圣诞节之前。

综合媒体11月2日报道，据道琼斯通讯社2日消息，希腊政府一名高级官员表示，希腊内阁2日一致决定推进就该国最新一轮援助计划举行全民公投的计划，尽管该计划招致执政党议员公开反对。

该官员在长达六小时的内阁马拉松会议之后表示，内阁一致支持公投，“公投绝对不可能胎死腹中，人们现在所说的话与他们日后如何投票不尽相同。”希腊总理帕潘德里欧(George Papandreou)要求召开了此次会议，目的是讨论公投方案。

另一名政府官员表示，公投可能会在圣诞节之前举行，略早于之前预期。此前，希腊政府暗示会在2012年1月举行公投。

帕潘德里欧当地时间31日突然呼吁就是否接受欧盟援助计划进行全民公投。不过，对于帕潘德里欧的决定，希腊反对党对此坚决反对。一些希腊政府官员认为，如果政府在公投中失败，将促使该国退出欧元区。

这在欧洲各国引发不安，全球金融市场陷入一片惊慌。因为此举提升了人们对于此举可能威胁希腊获得第六批80亿欧元援助资金的担忧情绪，这笔援助资金原定于本月到账，用以偿付债务。

当地时间1日，希腊社会党议员Hara Kefalidou公开反对就新的欧洲援助计划进行全民投票，她也是第四位宣布反对全民投票的社会党副官。这意味着，帕潘德里欧这项计划在议会已经失去了 真正的大多数支持。根据希腊法律，全民投票要在内阁的决定获得议会大多数议员的批准之后才能进行。现在看来，帕潘德里欧距离启动全民投票所需的大多数票还 很远很远。

greenback

希腊总理帕潘德里欧意外宣布欧盟新一轮救助计划付诸公投,令全球金融市场陷入一片恐慌,再次说明欧盟峰会达成的协议是脆弱的。市场避险情绪高涨,欧美股市全线重挫,欧元汇率暴跌不止。为阻止恐慌情绪进一步蔓延,安抚市场投资者,德国总理默克尔与法国总统萨科奇在G20峰会前夕匆忙赶往法国戛纳,订于周三(11月2日)与欧盟首脑、IMF主席及希腊当局展开紧急磋商。

在曼氏金融控股(MFGlobal)宣布破产与希腊宣布公投后,市场不安情绪再度出现,投资者疯狂抛售欧元与股票等风险资产。欧元/美元本周累计重挫500余点,汇价自1.4170暴跌至1.3605。此外,恐慌情绪致使欧美股市全线暴跌,由于曼氏金融破产殃及众多金融机构,欧美股市金融类股领跌。

二十国集团(G20)峰会将于11月3日-4日在法国戛纳召开。原本以为本次G20峰会可依据欧盟拟妥的4大决议,共商如何解决欧债危机,但希腊公投计划使峰会议程乱了套。

德国总理默克尔与法国总统萨科奇紧急赶往戛纳与欧洲理事会主席范龙佩、欧盟委员会主席巴罗佐及IMF主席拉加德会晤,将在周三于戛纳先举行非正式领袖会议,评估希腊不惜赔上违约与退出欧盟代价,也要举办公投的变故。

德国政府发言人周二(11月1日)下午表示,德国和法国都希望欧盟国家和IMF能就10月27日获致的纾困计划的实施订定时间表,所以,周三德法将与欧盟机构及IM展开F磋商,也计划与希腊政府讨论。

欧洲管理及科技学院(ESM)院长JoergRocholl在接受德国电视台访问时表示:“万一希腊公投决定不接受纾困方案,希腊会面对更严重的财经问题,因为有些欧元区国家可能会拒绝再提供资金。在没有外援的情况下,希腊可能很难留在欧元区。”

万一希腊退出欧元区,是否会产生骨牌效应?德国总理默克尔此前一再强调要维持欧元区的稳定。希腊总理突如其来的宣布,让以为可以暂时解决当下欧债问题的德国和法国伤透脑筋。

希腊首都雅典发行的《日报》(Kathimerini)英文版副主编Nick Malkoutzis接受访问时指出,“在希腊选民进行公投之前,希腊国会在11月4日将进行对政府的信任投票。他认为,在明年元月预定的公投时间之前,情况可能还会有变化。”

Malkoutzis表示,“希腊的宪法并不容许对于预算问题进行公投,所以,人们会有疑问:公投的题目到底会是什么?另外,公投的问题是否会被视为其实是政府借公投来要挟选民,令他们支持其政策?这些疑问都可能影响公投的结果。也因此,若进行公投,会有什么样的结果,实在很难料。”

dsp

"根据希腊法律，全民投票要在内阁的决定获得议会大多数议员的批准之后才能进行。现在看来，帕潘德里欧距离启动全民投票所需的大多数票还 很远很远。"

Just a political show?

silicon_beaver

It passed

greenback

silicon_beaver 发表于 2011-11-2 02:00
It passed

It has to be passed by the congress ...