VIX does not support 200 DMA being the top of the current advance

csw2002

Whigs 发表于 2011-11-3 22:28
You can argue this from another perspective:
the two day rally is not real  - you cannot and sho ...

Check the behaviour of VIX after the top since 2000. None of them had shot up the way it has had over the last few days. Obviously my observations are more qualitative since VIX numbers are not available prior to 2000. My point is simply that market is not likely fall much if a lot of people have positioned themselves with puts (resulting in elevated VIX).

nomattewhen

CoolMax 发表于 2011-11-3 22:47
好机会是要耐心等待的。

我先看戏。两个重点，200天均线和前高。

谢谢老大回复，思路清晰了一些。 这次坚决等老大的号召，绝不抢跑一步

csw2002

CoolMax 发表于 2011-11-3 22:48
我不期望这么快又去测试200天均线。这是熊放手的迹象。

I expect the next leg up will be choppy. The other thread I posted has a study that suggests that we would revisit today's open within the next 2 days and Cobra has statistics that suggest that close of the today would be revisted within the next 2 days. I believe that a bear market will commence early next year, but just not right now, given the excessive bearishness.

CoolMax

csw2002 发表于 2011-11-3 22:56
I expect the next leg up will be choppy. The other thread I posted has a study that suggests that  ...

If I'm OB, I'd prefer bear market now and bull market mid next year.
You know the reason.

Everybody expects the Christmas Rally, should we have one, I debt!

silicon_beaver

Thanks.

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