10/17/2011 Market Outlook (More Down Ahead) --Cobra

spo

转过来，免得同学们以为今天老大翘课了
详细见 http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/?p=2501

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE PULLBACK, A REMINDER OF USUAL AAPL POST ER PATTERN

Three cents:

    1.Could see more pullbacks ahead. However, there’re some chances the market sell off in the morning but rebound to close in green eventually.
    2.Temporarily maintain the call that the pullback is a buy opportunity. However, besides the experiences, I don’t have any solid evidences to support such a judgement. And unfortunately, I also don’t know if there’s any good way to know, as early as possible, whether the rebound since the Oct 4th was over or it is a buyable dip, so I’m afraid the report for the following days may just be a guess game. Basically:
        -- As long as we don’t see 3 consecutive down days then the trend is clearly up, because a strong uptrend should never have 3 consecutive down days. That said, even we do see 3 consecutive down days, it doesn’t prove that the rebound was over, it only argues that so far we had is just a rebound that my dream yacht would have to wait longer before possible.
        --The rebound since the Oct 4th is very strong so it’s really rare such a rebound is just one legged, therefore at minimum the Friday’s high shall be revisited, which already is the worst case mention in the 10/14 Market Outlook after a Selling Climax.
    3. AAPL ER in AH tomorrow, I just want to remind you the usual AAPL post ER pattern is fireworks that it skyrockets high then falls back to the ground in a few days.

impresario100

Fan8an

fara

Next time, Please move the " Trading Signals" to Hutong, too!

{:8_442:}

coexist

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