本帖最后由 spo 于 2011-10-2 19:36 编辑
各大论坛都很熊啊，连wsj都难免俗。
Investors Sing a New Tune—'Won't Get Fooled Again'
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Now is not the time to let yourself be suckered into getting back into stocks.
Sure, the markets had a couple of spectacular days last week, but don't let that fool you into thinking all is well again with the world.
It's not. There's still plenty of uncertainty out there. Yes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Friday up 1.3% for the week, one of the Dow's better showings in months. But the week before was one of its worst in years. And the Dow is still down 5.7% for 2011.
The Nasdaq Compsite is also down 9% for the year, and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is off 10%.
That's exactly why you need to stay cautious right now. In all likelihood, things will get worse before it's all done.
"It could be weeks -- if not months -- before we see the end of the downside," says Michael Woolfolk, a senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York.
Last week's relative tranquility in the stock markets belies the fact that the problems that caused those summer gyrations haven't receded. Europe is still a mess. Economies are cooling all around the globe. And the U.S. government's debt isn't getting any smaller.
Here's a recap of those top three economic monsters still threatening us and how to invest appropriately for each:
1. The ongoing crisis in Europe.
The risk of Greece defaulting on its debt has some people worried about a repeat of the U.S.-led financial crisis of 2008. Mr. Woolfolk sees "denial" in the talk of "if" that will happen. "We think it's just a matter of timing," he says.
A default by Greece and its quick exit from Europe's single currency, the euro, would be good for that country's economy, which would likely then see a boost in its tourism business, he says.
That may be a long-term reality, but if that does happen it could unleash a financial tsunami at already troubled banks.
All risky assets, including stocks, will feel the pain of such a meltdown. But ironically, the effects will be felt harder far away from Europe. Specifically, the emerging economies will be hurt as investors pull back their capital while likely looking for a safe haven in U.S. government bonds or in dollars.
That means in the event of a full-blown euro crisis investors should certainly avoid stocks in emerging markets, says Mr. Woolfolk. In addition, they might also want to reduce their holdings of stocks in Europe and the U.S.
Stocks will likely move lower before higher, says Mr. Woolfolk, who suggests those still keen on stocks should consider "layering in" over time as prices decline -- as the market falls, buy stocks a little at a time. That way you pay a lower average price per stock and benefit more when shares finally do rebound.
2. Cooling economies everywhere.
The final reading of U.S. growth for the second quarter was a paltry 1.3%. And prospects for the third quarter, which ended on Friday, aren't much better. The real concern is that the U.S., Europe and China will all enter into recessions.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-10-2 06:33 PM
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发表于 2011-10-2 08:25 PM
