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发表于 2011-9-16 06:07 AM
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Market expects Operation Twist in September
Operation Twist would take some fancy footwork, Jersey said, with the New York Fed likely having to hold two auctions in a single day.
The Fed would first sell shorter-dated securities and would then hold a second auction to buy bonds of longer maturities from primary dealers. Both auctions would settle the following day.
While it would lower rates at the back end of the yield curve, Operation Twist could also nudge front-end rates higher, possibly to the benefit of money market funds scrambling for ultra-safe securities with a yield above zero.
"The way we looked at it, it looks like they could sell something like $265 billion -- everything they hold through June 30, 2013 -- and that could be absorbed with very modest rate movement," said Thomas Simons, money market economist at Jefferies & Co in New York.
"It might push rates a few basis points higher" in shorter-dated Treasuries, he added.
Goldman's Hatzius said such an operation would ultimately remove so much longer-dated debt from the market, its effect would be almost as big as the Fed's last major easing program.
Referred to by many as QE2, the Fed bought $600 billion in Treasuries. Quantitative easing has been considered an effective monetary policy tool when interest rates are near zero.
"This type of operation would be the equivalent of 80-90 percent of QE2 in terms of duration risk removed from the market," Hatzius said.
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