看图说话：衰退！衰退！！衰退！！！(2)

Whigs

Consumers in early August say their view of the U.S. economy is the worst since 1980 — a time covering the only back-to-back recessions in modern history.

In fact, the sharp drop of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is always a very reliable leading indicator of a recession since 1966!

sexydaytrader

dividend_growth

Consumer sentiment是个lagging indicator。

Whigs

dividend_growth 发表于 2011-8-12 19:39
Consumer sentiment是个lagging indicator。

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uni ... mer_Sentiment_Index

"The Index of Consumer Expectations (a sub-index of ICS) is included in the Leading Indicator Composite Index published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis."

http://thomsonreuters.com/produc ... rveys_of_consumers/

The survey's Index of Consumer Expectations is an official component of the US Index of Leading Economic Indicators.

"Proven accuracy: Data from the Surveys of Consumers have proved to be accurate indicators of the future course of the national economy. The data are widely used by a broad range of business firms, financial institutions, and federal agencies. The Index of Consumer Expectations is an official component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, devised by the US Department of Commerce. Each component is selected on its predictive performance, economic significance, and statistical characteristics. No other consumer survey meets these rigorous criteria. "

umqasr

wyjhyd

嗯...

dividend_growth

回复 Whigs 的帖子



这个什么"US Economic Leading Index"也是个lagging indicator，你要看这玩意儿炒股很快就被洗出局了。

等这个leading indicator变负时，你早就跌残了；相反它转正时，股市早涨翻了。

还有，leading indicator经常来来回回拉锯，你自己研究研究这个（http://www.conference-board.org/data/bciarchive.cfm?cid=1），看你能不能靠它赚钱！

Whigs

回复 dividend_growth 的帖子

我在说经济衰退，你在说股市到底，这么抬杠、转换话题有意思吗？

dividend_growth

理屈词穷，恼羞成怒了？

这里是炒股网站，大家要炒股赚钱，谁TMD去吃饱了撑着去猜经济衰不衰？一般的熊市等大家知道衰退时也到底了。

Whigs

dividend_growth 发表于 2011-8-13 01:49
理屈词穷，恼羞成怒了？

这里是炒股网站，大家要炒股赚钱，谁TMD去吃饱了撑着去猜经济衰不衰？一般的熊市 ...

Time will tell...

嘿嘿，为你而怒，你当自己是哪根葱啊？！

道不同，不相为谋 - 你自己好自为之，我断不会再与你理论了。

胡同0110

呵呵，大家别吵了，我们是业余的，这位老兄是共和党专业人士，我也不是第一次看他的帖子了。中国人里面还有共和党专业人士，也算是个熊猫吧。