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发表于 2011-8-11 05:47 PM
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牛牛们注意了：这只是一个反弹！最后的胜利，是属于熊的！
原因，如下：
The risk of a double dip recession has climbed sharply as the economy endures the double whammy of slowing growth and wild swings in global markets, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal over the past week.
The 46 economists in the survey—not all of whom answer every question—put the odds that the U.S. is already in another recession at 13%, while they peg the chances of going that way in the next year at 29%—up from 17% only a month ago.
Another recession isn't a certainty. The stock market rallied on Thursday, in part because of a reassuring signal that the wheels haven't yet come off the U.S. job market. Initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked down last week to 395,000, pulling the total below the 400,000 threshold at which the economy is usually assumed to be adding more jobs than it is shedding. Fears of a European debt crisis also eased slightly.
But the bigger picture is of an economy where growth has slowed so markedly that it wouldn't take much to push it into an outright contraction. A recession—according to the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee, the nonprofit group considered the official arbiter of recessions—is "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months." They study gross domestic product, employment and incomes to pinpoint when recessions start and end.
The problem is that the committee doesn't usually declare a downturn until well after it is under way. The official 2007 start date of the most recent recession, for instance, wasn't announced until December 2008.
Some economists say the distinction between a recession and the extremely slow growth recorded so far this year is nearly meaningless. "We are probably debating words at this point; a secondary dip is playing out," said Paul Ballew, chief economist at Nationwide.
Revisions to GDP released late last month show that the recovery has been slow, with growth in the first half of this year below 1% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. The second quarter came in at just 1.3% growth, and following the release Thursday of a wider trade deficit for June, economists at Goldman Sachs suggested that could be revised even lower to around 0.9%. Slower growth in the first half has led economists in the survey to slash their forecasts for the rest of this year and into next as well. They now estimate growth for full-year 2011 to be just 1.6% and 2012 is expected to be a mere 2.5%.
"The economy has already been hit by a series of shocks earlier this year, so I think we need just one more modest shock to tip the economy back into recession," said Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer.
The most likely such shock she cited: Turmoil in Europe, which could spill over into the U.S. Another possibility: Recent volatility on Wall Street, which has wiped out some $328 billion in wealth in the past week.
"It absolutely ups the risk of a double dip," said Steve Blitz, a senior economist at ITG Investment Research in New York. "It's hard for it not to." Big drops in the stock market, Mr. Blitz said, could cause consumers to pull back on spending, which could further hurt an already-weak economy. The effect could be especially pronounced among wealthier Americans, who have more of their money in the stock market—and whose spending has until now been a relative bright spot.
In an interview Thursday, economist Nouriel Roubini—who doesn't participate in the Journal's survey—said the world had more than a 50% chance of falling into recession, and that the next two to three months would reveal which way the global economy will head. "We are at stall speed right now, and we do not know if we are going to go up, or down," Mr. Roubini said. The world is operating "in the fog of uncertainty," he added.
Some economists responding to the Journal survey are more optimistic. Maury Harris, chief U.S. economist for UBS, said he sees relatively little risk of a renewed recession. Many economists, he said, are too focused on the government's limited options, while ignoring signs that the economy is already improving on its own. Oil prices are falling, which should allow consumers to spend less at the pump and more on other things. Banks, meanwhile, are stepping up lending to both individuals and businesses.
The survey, however, shows a key element of the economy—the job market—remains under heavy stress. The economists expect the unemployment rate to still be at 9% at the end of this year, down just slightly from July's 9.1%. They estimate that the economy will add an average of just 145,000 jobs a month over the next year, barely enough to make up for population growth and doing little for the 13.9 million people who are currently seeking employment.
Other factors are weighing on the U.S. economy, as the Federal Reserve noted in a gloomy outlook issued in its policy statement earlier this week. The central bank pointed to weakness in household spending, deterioration in the jobs market and a depressed housing sector. Indeed, economists still expect construction to remain at moribund levels into 2012. They see home prices falling 3% this year and increasing a mere 1.5% next year. The Fed also expressed concerns that transitory factors such as a spike in energy prices earlier this year and supply-chain disruptions from the Japanese earthquake account for just part of the recent economic weakness. |
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发表于 2011-8-11 04:47 PM
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