我对FED今天没有推出QE3的解读。

ctcld

On Wednesday August 10, 2011, 3:11 am EDT

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday a third round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve is likely after the U.S. Federal Reserve promised to keep rates at extraordinarily low levels for at least two more years.

"We now see a greater-than-even chance that the FOMC will resume quantitative easing later this year or in early 2012. We have changed our call because today's statement suggests that the committee's reaction function to incoming economic news is more dovish than we had previously thought," Jan Hatzius, chief economist at the firm, said in a note.

The explicit commitment to keep policy rates low through mid-2013 and a bias to easing policy further were more aggressive than expected and resulted in Goldman penciling in QE3 after the previous $600 billion bond-purchase program ended in June.

Hatzius said he thought the fact that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke went ahead with a promise to keep rates low within a specific time frame despite three dissents in the policy-setting committee was a sign the rest of the central bank believe renewed easing is important.

所以，我看底还没到，在1020-1050附近（QE2的起点）时间在9月。

匪兵甲

soulvirus

靠，咋解读咧？难哪，比读个屁挨着地还难

Billyboy

ppteam

Ben will inflate everything

soulvirus

ppteam 发表于 2011-8-10 16:48
Ben will inflate everything

The question is how long it would take to do that? A freefall to 666 or 888 will evaporate qe1 & qe2, and cost O8 4 more year presidency.

ctcld

美国东部时间8月10日晚间(北京时间8月11日早间)消息，新浪财经获悉，美国总统奥巴马周三在白宫总统办公室会见美联储主席伯南克，商讨经济与全球复苏议题。这是两人今年第三次会面。

　　评级机构标普上周五调降美国主权信用评级打击投资市场信心，加上美国经济复苏前景不明，两人的会面备受关注。尽管白宫新闻发言人杰-卡尔尼表示，这只是两人的例常会面，但是彭博电视台即刻解读为“没有什么是例常的”。

　　白宫在网站披露，奥巴马与伯南克就经济与全球复苏进行商讨，主要涉及的内容有经济复苏前景、就业、财政状况议题(包括长期减赤方案)以及欧洲形势。财长盖纳特、白宫办公厅主任戴利和国家经济委员会主任斯珀林参与此次会面。

　　两人会面前一日，美联储公布8月议息声明，联储下调未来数季经济增长预期，称经济下滑的风险上升，同时宣布维持0-0.25%低利率至2013年中，并就支持经济复苏的可能货币工具进行了讨论。

　　美联储并没有推出市场所期盼的第三轮量化宽松政策(QE3)以刺激经济，加上周三传出法国可能被调降AAA评级的谣言，欧美股市再度大幅下挫。在此背景下，两人会面变得不再“例常”。

　　彭博电视台引述分析师指，伯南克尽力出招稳固市场信心、推动经济增长同时，或督促政府能够更具成效的解决财政赤字问题。此次标普调降美国评级皆因其认为美国中期债务水平不稳。

　　奥巴马周一信心喊话时已表示将尽快就国会特别委员会的1.5万亿赤字削减方案提供自己的看法，另外截至周三，已有9名议员被提名进入国会削减赤字特别委员会

ctcld

我在猜想，下一次的QE一定会配合其他政策出台，是场联合行动。现在OB是万事俱备，只欠东风，他在等待时机，所以要和大本再谋一下。

手段无非是先砍长期的政府项目开支，取悦选民，然后再出台支持就业的优惠政策，取悦贫民，最后再注水QE3，取悦股民。

等着吧，，，

lanz

suancai