Something bad is going to happen?

Diver

Carry-trading (especially AUD/JPY) is unwinding badly. What is going on? WW 3 starting from South China Sea?

colderdown

回复 Diver 的帖子

没什么的，中国银根继续紧缩，基建规模受控，很正常的反应。

Diver

Frankly speaking, I do not see any reasonable reason for the market plunge for the last three days.

I guess it is just selling on news and over-reacting causing panicking, because MM's want to shake off bulls, due to bull wagon was too crowded since last Friday when too many people expected debt ceiling deal.

当时惘然

thank you.
agreed. too many bulls last week.
no idea now.

ByStander

Diver 发表于 2011-8-3 18:09
Frankly speaking, I do not see any reasonable reason for the market plunge for the last three days.
...

最近的经济数据都不太好。这还不够吗？1季度GDP0.4%， 2季度1.3%。在过去几十年中GDP出现这样的读数都是发生在经济或是将要进入RECESSION，或是刚刚走出RECESSION。你认为现在应该是在什么位置？太多的人把希望寄托于QE3。在现在的政治环境下，QE3是不可能的。除非死皮跌上个200点。

Diver

ByStander 发表于 2011-8-3 18:21
最近的经济数据都不太好。这还不够吗？1季度GDP0.4%， 2季度1.3%。在过去几十年中GDP出现这样的读数都是发 ...

I think bad macro-economic data have already been priced in since the drop from 1345.

spy2011

大多数人都期望的事情, 往往不会发生的.

大多数人都期望, 上限通过后大涨, 结果大跌;

大多数人都期望, SPX跌得很惨, 然后QE3, 结果也会没有;

ByStander

Diver 发表于 2011-8-3 18:23
I think bad macro-economic data have already been priced in since the drop from 1345.

如果真的是另一次RECESSION到来，那从1345跌下来显然不够

ByStander

spy2011 发表于 2011-8-3 18:26
大多数人都期望的事情, 往往不会发生的.

大多数人都期望, 上限通过后大涨, 结果大跌;

是SPX跌得很惨没有，还是QE3没有？

spy2011

被重创的牛牛们, 大多觉得已经跌得很惨了, 只好期望QE3, 以使得股市大涨.

偶估摸着, 这不会发生.

由於太多人期望QE3, 被套牢的硬撑, 加上不断有人抄底, 而基本面又实在太差, 股市上下震荡, 慢慢的, 一直到, ,,,,,,,,,

spy2011

O8说经济会慢慢复苏, 大笨暗示实在不行还有QE3.  

所以股市继续下跌的空间有限, 除非有人犯混, 包括欧洲有些"可爱"的政客.