Gold’s run is almost over

George25

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Brace yourself, gold traders.

Bullion’s extraordinary run is fast running out of steam. Don’t be surprised if gold pulls back in coming sessions.

At a minimum, such a pullback would be a health-restoring event for the bull. However, such a pullback could also be the start of something more serious. We’ll know soon after it begins.


/quotes/zigman/700181
GC1Q 1,591.80, -9.50, -0.59%


1,6501,6001,5501,5001,450AMJJ

For now, though, the important thing for short-term traders to know is that excitement has grown markedly over the last couple of sessions, and now stands at close to the fever pitch that prevailed in late April. Soon after that previous crescendo of bullish enthusiasm, of course, gold encountered a stunning air pocket and fell more than $100 per ounce.

Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). This average currently stands at 67%, which is within shouting distance of the 73.7% level the HGNSI rose to in late April, which was a several-year high.

The wall of worry that the gold market has been climbing in recent weeks is close to disintegrating, in other words.

This represents a big change from just a few days ago, when that wall of worry remained quite strong — surprisingly so, in fact, given that gold had already run up by quite a bit and was close to its late April peak (which was registered at around $1,560 an ounce). This is what allowed contrarians to forecast that gold would be able to significantly break above its previous all-time closing high. ( Read my Jul 13. column in Barron’s “Gold can head even higher.” )

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The deteriorating sentiment picture doesn’t mean gold’s run is over, I hasten to add. The bull market’s longer-term future depends in no small part on how sentiment reacts to coming market weakness.

It would be a positive sign, from a contrarian point of view, if the gold traders were to quickly run for the exits in the face of that weakness. That would suggest that there remains an underlying climate of skittishness about gold, which would allow the wall of worry to be quickly rebuilt.

In contrast, it would be a negative sign if the gold traders cling to their new-found bullishness in the face of market weakness. Contrarians believe stubbornly held bullishness to be a particularly bad sign, suggesting that more downside action is necessary before a sustainable rally can once again begin in earnest.
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

George25

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George25

 

wyemlyy

GOLD 会有大一点点的调整，不过GOLD的牛市应当没OVER

ppteam

gold run over theory appeared at 1300, 1400, and 1500; now it's 1600.

eventually they willl be right.

gummykitty

for now

George25

http://www.marketwatch.com/story ... MW_home_latest_news

By V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch
TAIPEI (MarketWatch) — Gold futures slipped below the $1,600-a-troy ounce level during Asian trading hours Wednesday as signs of progress on U.S. and European debt issues prompted investors to sell the metal after its steep recent climb.

Gold futures for delivery in August /quotes/zigman/700181 GC1Q -0.59%  fell $9.40, or 0.6%, to $1,591.70 an ounce, extending losses after a modest decline in the regular trading session in New York and after a journey into record territory recently.

Spot gold prices, meanwhile, rose $2.20 to $1,591 a troy ounce.

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The losses for gold futures in electronic trading came after U.S. President Barack Obama said there has been “some progress” in talks with lawmakers on raising the U.S. debt ceiling. Read full report.

The fall in gold prices also came as worries over the Greece debt situation eased on comments by European Central Bank governing council member Ewald Nowotny. Nowotny told CNBC in an interview that there were “some proposals that deal with a very short-lived default situation that would not really have major negative consequences.”

But some analysts said gold prices were likely to be well supported in the near term.

Credit Agricole strategist Robin Bhar wrote in a note there was “no reason to sell gold in the current environment.”

He said gold prices could be supported in the “very near-term and ahead of the special EU summit on July 21, with financial markets already unnerved by the apparent lack of urgency among policy makers in the euro zone.”
/quotes/zigman/700181   Add GC1Q to portfolio GC1Q Gold - Electronic (COMEX) Aug 2011 $ 1,591.60 -9.50 -0.59% Volume: 7,045July 20, 2011 12:26a1,6101,6051,6001,5959a10a11a12p1p 2:40pGold falls on Globex on U.S. debt ceiling progress2:33pGold falls on Globex on US debt ceiling progress2:33pAugust gold down $14.20 at $1,586.90 on Globex
Varahabhotla Phani Kumar is a reporter in MarketWatch's Hong Kong bureau.