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黎明前的黑暗

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发表于 2011-6-13 10:49 AM | 显示全部楼层


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 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-13 11:09 AM | 显示全部楼层
据《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)消息,美国就业市场的持续低靡已经严重威胁到美国经济的复苏。先前经济学家曾乐观预期就业市场将逐步恢复,但从目前的情况来看,事实却并非如此。

参与调查的54位经济学家平均预计,未来12个月,美国将新增220万个就业岗位,低于上月预计的250万个,这也是自去年10月份以来的首次预期下调。咨询公司Perna Associates的裴尼格(Nicholas Perna)说:“如果就业增长不能加快的话,经济恢复就没戏了。”

就业增长放慢将使目前为9.1%的失业率只可能缓慢降低。经济学家平均预计,2012年6月份的失业率为8.2%,2012年12月份的失业率为7.9%。

经济增速放慢又将抑制就业市场增长。该调查显示,经季节性因素调整后,经济学家将第二季度美国国内生产总值(GDP)同比增幅预期下调至2.3%,上个月的预期为3.2%。但他们认为GDP增幅将在2011年下半年加速至3.3%。

经济学家平均预计,明年美国经济出现二次衰退的可能性仅为16%,但经济复苏依然面临风险。回答这一问题的49位经济学家中有21位称,经济复苏的最大风险是就业增速放慢。

还有19位经济学家认为,油价的持续上涨才是经济面临的最大风险。

多数经济学家还把美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)加息时间的预期推迟至2012年,反映出美国经济今年年初的疲软走势令他们感到担忧。虽然有29位经济学家认为,定于本月结束的Fed国债购买计划是必要的,但只有3位认为还需要新一轮国债购买计划。经济学家们平均预计,即使今年夏天的经济数据依然令人失望,Fed购买更多美国国债的可能性也仅为28%。

美国中弗罗里达大学(University of Central Florida)的斯奈特(Sean M. Snaith)说:“购买国债就像是给市场擦清凉油一样—不能治本,但可以让人感觉好一些。”
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发表于 2011-6-13 12:08 PM | 显示全部楼层
1150,1050

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-13 12:35 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ctcld 于 2011-6-13 18:16 编辑
redwendy 发表于 2011-6-13 13:08
1150,1050


如果按老子学说,现在是阳中有阴。可以结合定量的黄金分割与TA来分析。
1230 -- 周线MA50 处,又为上次的阴谷。也是从1370调整下来的.318处。
1150 -- 周线MA100 处,又为前次顶部的突破点。也基本上是从1370调整下来的.682处。
1050 -- 上次的市场恐慌点。

这点点位都刻在胖手指家的电脑里。。。
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-13 01:34 PM | 显示全部楼层
开始刮风了。。。老熊还是躲一躲吧。

Summers: More stimulus needed to avoid 'Lost Decade'

Larry Summers, formerly one of the top economic advisors to President Obama, is advocating more government stimulus to jumpstart the struggling U.S. economy.

In opinion pieces Monday in the Washington Post and Financial Times, Summers, who was the first director of the National Economic Council under Obama, says that the United States is at risk of falling into a "Lost Decade" of prolonged weak economic growth and high unemployment unless more action is taken in the near term.

"We averted Depression in 2008/2009 by acting decisively. Now we can avert a lost decade by recognizing economic reality," he wrote.

Summers wrote that demand is likely to stay weak without the government taking steps to spur spending. He said the U.S. could have fallen into a double-dip recession already if not for the tax cuts and payroll tax holiday passed at the end of last year.

"The central irony of financial crisis is that while it is caused by too much confidence, borrowing and lending, and spending, it is resolved only by increases in confidence, borrowing and lending, and spending," he wrote in both columns.

Summers argued that the debate over how best to cut federal government's deficit and long-term debt outlook shouldn't take precedent over doing more to promote economic growth in the short-term.

"The greatest threat to the nation's creditworthiness is a sustained period of slow growth," he wrote.

Among the proposals he made is increasing the size of the payroll tax holiday from 2% of income to 3% of income, and expanding it so that employers also get a break from paying the tax that goes to support Social Security.

"At a near-term cost of a little more than $200 billion, these measures offer the prospect of significant improvement in economic performance over the next few years translating into significant increases in the tax base and reductions in necessary government outlays," he said in the Washington Post column.

He also advocated more spending on public works projects in the near-term, arguing in the Financial Times that the government should "take advantage of a moment when 10-year interest rates are below 3 percent and construction unemployment approaches 20 percent."

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发表于 2011-6-13 05:09 PM | 显示全部楼层
ctcld 发表于 2011-6-13 13:35
如果按老子学说,现在是阳中有阴。可以结合定量的黄金分割与TA来分析。
1230 -- 周线MA50 处,又为上次 ...

呵呵,

38.2 and 61.8
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发表于 2011-6-13 05:31 PM | 显示全部楼层
nice analysis. But your trend line is not plotted on log scale.
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发表于 2011-6-13 07:08 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2011-6-13 07:11 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2011-6-13 09:02 PM | 显示全部楼层
I will wait until America government to print money again!
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发表于 2011-6-13 10:54 PM | 显示全部楼层
在确认转势之前,继续等待。目前还有震荡下跌结构。
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发表于 2011-6-13 11:01 PM | 显示全部楼层
Patient and wait
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发表于 2011-6-14 05:36 PM | 显示全部楼层
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谢谢学游!:)
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发表于 2011-6-14 08:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2011-6-14 10:19 PM | 显示全部楼层
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