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* Rather than outright default, many countries attempt rather successfully to keep nominal interest rates lower than would otherwise prevail.
* Over the long term, this “financial repression” results in a transfer of wealth from savers to borrowers.
* Investors shouldn’t give their money away, and at the moment, the duration component of a bond portfolio comes close to doing just that – because it doesn’t yield enough relative to inflation.
Because the QEs cover an extraordinary period of monetary policy with a limited time frame, there is not enough data to indicate whether the end of QEII will lead to higher or even lower rates, although higher is our strong preference. “Who will buy them?” remains a critical question to be answered. There is, however, overwhelming evidence – now provided by Carmen Reinhart among others – that existing Treasury yields fail to adequately compensate investors for the risk of holding them, when measured on a historical basis.
PIMCO_IO_201106.pdf
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发表于 2011-6-1 05:02 PM
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