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发表于 2011-5-25 11:59 PM
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ypm968 发表于 2011-5-25 23:53 
It's all about US credit rating.
The possibility of US debt default is very very small.
队长，我就随便说说啊。见笑了。
1) There is difference between sovereign debt and corporate debt. Theoretically, no country would default on its own-currency-denominated debt, because it can simply run the press machine to print more paper money. This is why most eventful sovereign defaults (such as Mexico's default in 1994 and Argentinian's default in 2002) are on foreign-currency-denominated debt. Sure, wired thing can happen. Russian shocked the entire world when it defaulted on Ruble-denominated debt and kept paying for the foreign currency (e.g. USD) denominated debt.
If US would default this time, it is not because it can't print more $$ to pay the debt, it is because of political gestures by the politicians. As you agreed, the chance is very small.
2) Normally, when a sovereign CDS increases, its bond yield would increase along. This is not happening on US treasuries. cash market is much deeper than the tiny CDS market on UST. This is why I think the widening of UST CDS is mostly because of speculations. This is similar to the case when the stock price of a bankrupted company is not trading at zero, it is not because there is any residual value in the equity but because of speculation.
3) regarding to who is willing to continue to lend to US government. Good question. Export-oriented countries running a big trading surplus against US, especially those in east Asia, will continue to do so because they have no other choice but to buy US assets so to keep its own currency artificially cheap. Sure this situation can change, if, as XingXing implied before, these countries start increasing their export to other regions such as EU. But, it will be a very long time before such gradual changes have real impact on financial markets. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-5-25 11:09 PM
