请专家分析分析LDK， JASO,HSOL 等几个太阳能股。何时买以及前景如何

szd116

这几天太阳能暴跌，昨天也没有反弹，这主要来源于意大利的政策的改变。不知何时买划算，LDK我觉得债务太重，不如JASO来的稳当。请大家来谈谈。

cartier

Solar Stocks Fall as Analysts Predict Oversupply, Falling Prices
By Ehren Goossens - Mar 11, 2011 12:02 PM PT

Solar energy stocks fell today as analysts said that cuts to incentive programs in Europe may drive down prices and demand for panels that convert sunlight into electricity.

Energy Conversion Devices Inc. (ENER) fell as much as 29 percent, the most in almost two years, in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The Auburn Hills, Michigan-based company announced yesterday that it would cut production to 25 megawatts in the current quarter following changes to incentive programs in France and Italy. The company received more than half of its sales in Europe in the fiscal year that ended in June.

JA Solar Holdings Co., a Shanghai-based solar panel maker, fell 28 cents, or 4.3 percent, to $6.30 at 2:36 p.m. Xinyu, China-based LDK Solar Co. dropped 35 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $10.60, and Wuxi, China-based Suntech Power Holdings Co. declined 5 percent to $8.05.

Christopher Blansett, an analyst in San Francisco with JP Morgan Securities LLC, said in a research note today that Energy Conversion’s announcement is “likely to become a recurring theme for solar stocks.” He maintained his “underweight” recommendation on the company’s shares.

Blansett downgraded Evergreen Solar Inc. (ESLR) to “underweight” from “neutral.” The Marlboro, Massachusetts-based solar company is moving its manufacturing to China, and he said it won’t “be able to reach a sufficient level of profitability before depleting its current cash position,” in part because the photovoltaic solar market will be “significantly oversupplied” in 2011.

Evergreen fell as much as 11 percent today to $1.65, its largest intraday decline since Jan. 3.

More Preannouncements
Satya Kumar, an analyst with Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc., said in a research note today that the reasons behind Energy Conversion’s cutbacks “make us believe the incident is not isolated, and there could well be more negative preannouncements to come from other companies.”

Kumar said solar supplies are “growing sharply” and “2011 will see significant panel price declines.”

Gabelli & Co. fund manager John Segrich said he shorted JA Solar and Power-One Inc. (PWER), anticipating that the changing incentives in Europe will lead to a glut of solar panels.

Camarillo, California-based Power One makes inverters for solar systems. It fell 7.8 percent to $7.20.

Sanjay Shrestha, an analyst with Lazard Capital Markets, downgraded both JA Solar and LDK Solar to “hold” from “buy” today, and said that solar panel prices will fall this year.

JA Solar announced yesterday plans to build a factory that will have annual production capacity of 3 gigawatts.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ehren Goossens in New York at egoossens1@bloomberg.net

szd116

谢谢分享，这篇文章我看过了觉得有点大惊小怪，如果有oversupply的情况，为什麽LDK要用将近20 亿进行扩建呢？ 不只LDK这样做，JASO，　TSL　都在扩建。

dsp

日本这次核泄漏不知道对solar的影响会不会是正面的？

greenhatman

I never touch solar and air line stocks unless I want to short them, simple as that.

smartll

FSLR, TSL, SPWRA 比较保险吧。

silicon_beaver

There are CSUN, HSOL, JASO, LDK, SOL, SOLR, STP, TSL and YGE on solar watchlist.
Among them, SOL and LDK have higher momentum. I would consider them first. JASO is secondary. Others are with less consideration.
Timing and switching, it's not a time to go long at this time. SOL has potential over LDK.
In their TA. LDK and most of others have signaled RSI <30, %K oversold. But SOL and JASO are not. sounds LDK is at its entry (SOL over and JASO one step more to go down).

讨论only. Your $$$, your call.

dsp

There are CSUN, HSOL, JASO, LDK, SOL, SOLR, STP, TSL and YGE on solar watchlist.
Among them, SOL an ...
silicon_beaver 发表于 2011-3-13 04:26

    LDK ER 3/17 AH. You may play after it. Do not play big unless you are quick hand.

szd116

我觉得最重要的一点是，大家怎样觉得华尔街所说的oversupply的问题

yam

日本这次核泄漏不知道对solar的影响会不会是正面的？
dsp 发表于 2011-3-13 00:02

大家可能觉得日本核泄漏很遥远。其实不是，看看这篇 日本核辐射云扩散 10天内抵达美国西海岸。

地球迟早要毁在所谓的和平核能上。

我看好太阳能。

silicon_beaver

1. FA. solar industry, all bad news/comments are out and are factored in. stocks are in red 10 days. Dark-cloud is phasing out.
2. TA. all TA indicators signal buy (SOL already bounced). hollow red candlesticks last Friday.
3. Friday market indeed factored Japan quake. But not new low, a good sign.
4. This weekend. Japan's nuclear crisis will make people re-think about the energy policy. Safe, Clean and Economic. Solar will be an option and to be boosted.