TBond Slide!

revolver

Market quite volatile after new year, firstly equity, then gold & oil, now yen & tbond!

trade28

thx

ranchgirl

too little

revolver

Looks to me very abnormal that both gold & tbond slide at the same time, signaling something big is going to happen.

wxyjohn1100

回复 4# revolver


    说明市场风险偏好大增？

chuanhua

revolver

回复 5# wxyjohn1100


    Partly true. In the past when risk appetite was up, normally dollar went down because zero funding rate acted as a source of carry trade.

But this time, dollar goes up against all major currency from euro to yen. Gold is also down due to currency movement. One must be wondering if all money are flowing to dollar zone but not to treasury which is seen as safe heaven. Then where is this flood eventually heading to? My bet is that China will soon report another record CPI and force the government to tighten again. We are just waiting the last straw to crash the entire Chinese housing bubble.

Cobra

回复  wxyjohn1100


    Partly true. In the past when risk appetite is up, normally dollar will  ...
revolver 发表于 2011-1-6 08:49

    Thanks.

colderdown

回复 7# revolver

Good one. But another 0.25 won't do much in China.

Poo

Chinese buying house all (most) in cash, they do not need loan, so the interest has little to do with housing.

wxyjohn1100

回复 7# revolver


    Thanks!

revolver

回复 9# colderdown


    Most likely it will be 3-ways movement, up interest rate, up reserve rate, up exchange rate. China will use them in a round robin manner, eventually the aggregate effect will pop the property bubble.

revolver

回复 10# Poo

I don't look that way.

    The truth is that all builders & local government vehicles are heavily leveraged, plus most of speculators.

azzz

azzz

sooners

回复 1# revolver


   

hlht

学习中。。。

丁一一

回复 7# revolver

So what will be the impact on gold and commodity?  Thx

revolver

回复 18# 丁一一


    eventually it would be bullish, but right now be prepared for volatility.