美国房市二次探底还是triple bottom?

yaobooyao

回复  yaobooyao

I should give you the details. This area's housing price was peaked in late 2005 ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-12-29 17:32

I get it.  That's the reason why you look San Diego as a leading area vs. the national price index.

So 920K vs. 1.3M as peak,  it's a 30% price cut over 5 years.

Looks like the rich people can handle investment bubble better than the average.

ypm968

回复  ypm968

Since yr 1998? Leading period is about 8 month to 18 month. The specific area we ch ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-12-29 08:54

    可能我孤陋寡闻，从来没听说过San Diego housing market leads US housing market，你要说New York,  Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas这几个人口最多的metropolitan还有点可信度，你说San Diego就 有点太扯了吧。 一个城市的房价就能代表全美国房价，那还要Case-Shiller index干什么。 咱没你牛X，也没你聪明， 但是基本常识我还是有的。Case-Shiller index, 你不知道可以问问你的房地产agent, 数据怎么来的可以上网google一下。忽悠人也得有点谱是不是，过了就没意思了。 咱说话喜欢直来直去， 有说过火的地方，先抱歉了。
BTW， 恭喜你买到便宜房子. 我住的这个区由于学区比较好, 今年年初房价就超过2007年的高点， 今年房价涨了5%， 但是整个county的median home price今年还是跌了3%。

yaobooyao

可能我孤陋寡闻，从来没听说过San Diego housing market leads US housing market，你要说New Yo ...
ypm968 发表于 2010-12-29 19:07

记得年初谁提到过SF 湾区的房子，已经有一批“老华侨”现金抄底。

美国的房子，如果剔除Foreclosure Bank Sales 的数字，对于一些不错的City /Area 做个房价统计，搞不好还能看到“普涨”的数字呢。

加拿大的房价，今年与去年环比上涨了6% 左右。 2008年底09年初的“低谷”也没怎么下去，澳洲也是差不多甚至更好。看在通胀的份上，着些国家的房价在这次危机中都是跌得少，涨得快。

yanjun

I sold two in new york city 5 boroughs @$835k & $920k in 2006(so called "peak"), now they are $935k & $1m. In some hot spots, the price never go down, they are  still hot, just not "that" hot.

ypm968

记得年初谁提到过SF 湾区的房子，已经有一批“老华侨”现金抄底。

美国的房子，如果剔除Foreclosure ...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-12-29 16:27

    去年股市到底后，很多炒房的就开始抄底。 今年5月份股市开始大跌以后，很多人就开始抛了， 11月份30年房贷开始大涨以后，一下又出来很多房子。 炒房的我看到很多，真正买房子自己住的不多。

美国房市的泡沫比加拿大和澳洲大得多得多， 因为美国过去房贷太松了，那时候有很多刚来美国的老中连合法身份都没有，也没有social security number, 只要付个10% down payment也能贷款买房子， 你都想象不到贷款有多容易，没creidt或者bad credit或者连收入都没有的，照样能拿到0 down房贷。太多太多根本不qualify的人都有了房子，所以泡沫才这么大。 月初Nouriel Roubini 上CNBC说现在美国每100个房贷里面起码20个都有很大问题， 9个超过60天没付或者己经进入foreclosure, 6个loans过去modified过但是再次default, 5个严重负资产（20% underwater)很可能变成strategic default。 美国还有很多"shadow inventory"的房子。  

其实买房子最重要的还是location, location, and location, 好的区跌得最晚，涨得最早，就跟好的股票一样。

ypm968

I sold two in new york city 5 boroughs @$835k & $920k in 2006(so called "peak"), now they are $935k  ...
yanjun 发表于 2010-12-29 17:35

    Manhattan的房价是跟Wall Street的bonus看齐的. 股市好，房价涨。

yaobooyao

去年股市到底后，很多炒房的就开始抄底。 今年5月份股市开始大跌以后，很多人就开始抛了， 11月份 ...
ypm968 发表于 2010-12-29 20:41

location , location , location.

On the other words,  the gold apples never get rusted.

Bad mortgage debts and foreclosures, that's the big drag on US market,  I really can't imagine how bad it can go if a double dip occurs,  if we believe this pesmestic view,  nobody should buy US house now at all.

Now someone  is talking on TV about US recovery down the road:

-  Jobless Recovery
-  Homeless Recovery

revolver

回复 25# ypm968


  Thanks for the sharing. I guess the 1st question to ourselves is what's the focus? If your focus is the overall housing market and economic situation, then the price of a specific location is not very meaningful.

colderdown

回复 21# yaobooyao

If you really want to get into housing market now, prime location is the MUST.