Bill Gross 应该得诺贝尔文学奖

Whigs

我是愈来愈喜欢这家伙了！

PIMCOInvestmentOutlooAllentown.pdf (726.62 KB, 下载次数: 80)

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源济

老大给总结总结？

greenback

Whigs

老大给总结总结？
源济 发表于 2010-12-3 16:22

不敢当。权且续貂：

对美国的前景非常看淡，相对看好EM:
"the smart money will continue to move offshore to Asia, Brazil and other developing economies, both in asset and in currency space"
“our unemployed will continue to fill out forms and stand in line. We’re living here in Allentown.“(高失业率）

再次表达了对Fed Ponzi Scheme的不满。
"And yes, policymakers at the Fed write trillions of dollars’ worth of checks under the guise of quantitative easing, a policy which takes Charles Ponzi one step further by purchasing the government’s own paper in a last gasp effort to support asset prices."
“The United States in short, needs to make things not paper, but that is not likely unless we see a policy revolution in Washington DC.“

美国政客乃至平民，企图通过“捷径”解决危机，不过是饮鸩止渴。在两条道路的抉择中，选择了错误的道路
“These policies only temporarily bolster consumption while failing to address the fundamental problem of developed economies: Job growth is moving inexorably to developing economies because they are more competitive.“
正确道路：
The constructive way is to stop making paper and start making things. Replace subprimes, and yes, Treasury bonds with American cars, steel, iPads, airplanes, corn – whatever the world wants that we can make better and/or cheaper. Learn how to compete again. Investments in infrastructure and 21st century education and research, as opposed to 20th century education are mandatory, as is a withdrawal from resource-draining foreign wars. It will be a tough way back, but it can be done with sacrifice and appropriate public policies that encourage innovation, education and national reconstruction, as opposed to Wall Street finance and Main Street consumption.

错误道路（美国人的选择）：
political and financial chicanery: trade and immigration barriers, currency devaluation and military domination of foreign oil-producing nations. It is by far the less preferable route, but unfortunately the one that is easier and, therefore, most politically feasible. Politicians do not get elected on the basis of “sacrifice.” They get elected by pointing to foreign demons, be they in the Middle East or in Asia. The Chinese yuan is a far easier target than the American workers earning ten times their Chinese counterparts and producing an inferior product to boot. Politicians also get elected by promising to keep taxes low, even for the rich, with the argument that small business owners cannot afford the increase. The real beneficiaries however, are the mega-millionaires of Wall Street and Newport Beach. And yes, policymakers at the Fed write trillions of dollars’ worth of checks under the guise of quantitative easing, a policy which takes Charles Ponzi one step further by purchasing the government’s own paper in a last gasp effort to support asset prices.

源济

不敢当。权且续貂：

对美国的前景非常看淡，相对看好EM:
"the smart money will continue to move ...
Whigs 发表于 2010-12-3 17:05

Whigs

For those who don't understand this sentence, “The Ben Bernank” as a YouTube cartoon rather hilariously labeled him Here is the video

superxy

How about BOND market?

revolver

thanks.

yuliang

thanks

go00ww

no room for bond yields to go much lower

dzyx

Bill Gross 其实才是最危险的。

Whigs

Bill Gross 其实才是最危险的。
dzyx 发表于 2010-12-3 20:41

    愿闻其详。

Whigs

no room for bond yields to go much lower
go00ww 发表于 2010-12-3 19:12

    事情不能那么绝对。参看Japan。

eiknarf

愿闻其详。
Whigs 发表于 2010-12-3 21:11

    同闻!

dzyx

回复 14# eiknarf


    我以前说过了，翻一下旧帖就可以看到。