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发表于 2010-11-11 11:39 PM
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我来说说我的体会吧:
1)市场是一个合力的结果,没有谁有绝对优势。
但要看到,一些大mm和大fund,的确 ...
watchman 发表于 2010-11-11 10:34 
I haven't been listening to the pit audio feed long enough to know whether the institutional orders always mark the correct directions. However, for very short term traders, if you have all the major institutions on the same side, then locals are usually overwhelmed. On the other hand, if institutions are both sided, locals typically have an edge to move the market around. In my limited experience, more often than not, locals move the market their way. Also my anecdotal observation is that institutions are not on the right side at the key turning dates: the most recent example being 27th August that I could remember. On 27th of August, the market gapped down on the open and then massive paper sell orders came in and drove the market down further. The locals went long at that point and continued to absorb enormous paper sell activities. They succeeded in rallying the market up till the end of the day. We then had retest of the low on Aug 31st and market rallied without ever looking back on 1st of Sept till now.
In terms of recording details of paper activities, it would be quite difficult. It's hard enough to listen for the activities of locals and papers and identifying the institution (which may not be possible some of the time). To record the price and volume of the orders are just about impossible unless it's a big size. You probably have noticed that I only say paper buy or sells. Sometime I give the quantity bought/sold if they are significant (>= 100 cars) and very rarely I gave the actual price they buy or sell at.
In addition, I can't listen to the pit audio during the entire market hours because regular U.S. trading hours now starts at 1:30AM my time and finishes at 8:15AM (apart from the fact that I have got to take a break from time to time). This makes even what I provide quite disjointed and incomplete. If anyone is interested, we could potentially share the time so that a more regular and comprehensive activities can be recorded. We could then determine whether we could extract more value out of the pit audio than what I already provide. |
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