10/27/2010 大盘回顾 （More Rebound?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up, I hold partial trapped short overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/26 10/22 : 10/23 Next pivot date: 10/21 – 10/22, 10/25 – 10/27, 11/04

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/05 Market Recap: 16 more trading days upswing? 10/26 Market Recap: Average 2.7% gain during the 8 trading days surrounding midterm election. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 20 unfilled gaps, the max was 21. 10/15 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/15 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 10/08 Market Recap: Up off-season usually means down earning season. 10/22 Market Recap: Institutions are selling into strength. 10/19 Market Recap: AAPL is way too stretched. 10/15 Market Recap: Euro may retreat which may cause US$ carry trade unwind. 6.4.2c Extreme TICK Readings Watch: TICK too low, lower low or lower close ahead? Failed! 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE trend line breakout, topped? No confirmed! 6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch: New high on negative NYMO readings, topped? 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): NYSI STO(5,3,3) sell signal. *6.1.9b Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index <= 30, top close?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L 10/19 Low

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE REBOUND STARTING AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

 

明天可能继续反弹，理由是VIX黑棒棒看起来比较toppy，因此可能会pullback，这意味着大盘more rebound。这个rebound如果能close above or decisively high above SPX 10/25 high，那么熊熊还是没有戏，否则，如果反弹的中途就又掉下来，特别是跌破今天的low的话，那么熊熊有希望。所以，看明天如何rebound吧。

 

 

Overall，还是觉得大盘涨不到哪里去，理由在下面intermediate-term session里讲了一大堆，今天又多个bad sign，就是ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index <= 30，见下面的图，好像都是top的样子。

 

 

下面的图昨天show过，不过ISEE今天把昨天的ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index由24修正到40了，所以昨天的bad sign不成立了。但是今天的ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index也非常低，因此ISEE Equities Only Index to ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index ratio还是很高，see highlighted in red，还是top的样子。这个图其实和上面的图是同一个东西，这里只是交代一下，昨天的数据不准，算是follow up。

 

 

NTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED, PIVOT DATE EITHER AROUND 10/22 OR 10/26 OR 11/04

 

Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view, the pivot date could be either around 10/22 or 10/26 or 11/04, see 10/15 Market Recap for more details. Below are summaries of all the arguments supporting my intermediate-term bearish view:

1. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/22 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.
5. As mentioned in 10/11 Market Recap, statistically VIX at 1 month low going into October was not a good sign.
6. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, US$ may rebound which is not good for the broad market.
7. As mentioned in 10/19 Market Recap, AAPL MACD is now too stretched which could mean a top for QQQQ.
8. As mentioned in 10/22 Market Recap, NYSI Weekly STO(5,3,3) sell signal means choppy ahead.

SEASONALITY: LAST TRADING WEEK AND LAST 2 TRADING DAYS OF EACH MONTH SINCE AUG 2009 WERE BEARISH

 

See 10/22 Market Recap for more details.

 

For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	COMMENT
QQQQ
NDX Weekly	NDX to SPX ratio too high. %B too high with negative divergence.
IWM
IWM Weekly	%B too high with negative divergence.
CHINA	Primary downtrend line breakout? To be confirmed.
CHINA Weekly	Extremely high %B.
EEM
EEM Weekly	EEM to SPX ratio too high.
XIU.TO
XIU.TO Weekly
TLT	*1-2-3 trend change confirmed, TLT could be in an intermediate-term downtrend. ChiOsc is too low though.
TLT Weekly
FXE	*On support.
FXE Weekly	Stalled at Fib confluences area, %B too high with negative divergence, too high above MA(40).
GLD	*On support.
GLD Weekly
GDX	On support, BPGDM sell signal though.
GDX Weekly
USO
WTIC Weekly
XLE
XLE Weekly	%B too high with negative divergence.
XLF
XLF Weekly	Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
IYR	*On support.
IYR Weekly	Home builders are lagging.
XLB
XLB Weekly	%B too high with negative divergence.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list

yuxiaohong

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