最新AAII sentiment survey

wave · 发表于 2010-9-30 03:53 AM

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.
Last Week's Results
Sentiment Survey
Results Week ending 9/29/2010

Bullish 42.5%
down 2.4
Neutral 25.9%
down 3.8
Bearish 31.6%
up 6.2

Change from last week:

Bullish: -2.4
Neutral: -3.8
Bearish: +6.2

Long-Term Average:

Bullish: 39%
Neutral: 31%
Bearish: 30%

wave · 发表于 2010-9-30 03:56 AM

不少牛牛和骑墙的都倒到熊熊了，嗯，看来真有可能还有一冲。

xz214 · 发表于 2010-9-30 05:59 AM

nubinca · 发表于 2010-9-30 06:20 AM

谢谢, sentiment不是很extreme, 即使是, top也需要时间来形成, 不象底部. 继续看多!

niufen88 · 发表于 2010-9-30 06:20 AM

thanks

Bencat · 发表于 2010-9-30 12:35 PM

ufo2003 · 发表于 2010-9-30 06:30 PM

marketstudent · 发表于 2010-10-1 09:46 AM

the survey data looks suspicious, the survey model needs to be examined.

wave · 发表于 2010-10-1 10:12 AM

could you explain a bit more?

the survey data looks suspicious, the survey model needs to be examined.
marketstudent 发表于 2010-10-1 11:46

wave · 发表于 2010-10-7 02:34 AM

看到出来，大家情绪都很稳定，可以说高涨。不过和marketwatch.com 的survey比，就有点confuse了。是不是这个AAII更可信呢？毕竟都是付费会员的survey。

wave · 发表于 2010-10-7 02:35 AM

关于这个sentiment survey，测顶不是很灵，要小心，但测底的效果不错。几个星期前，胡同有人贴AAII统计贴，说顶在一两周内。结果当然不是。我当时在回帖里就说了。

上周的结果不少骑墙和牛倒向熊，我猜还有一冲，不幸可耻的蒙对了。

Diver · 发表于 2010-10-7 01:52 PM

wave · 发表于 2010-10-14 03:29 AM

这周有趣的是，牛和熊都减少了一点，骑墙的增多了。

jeff110 · 发表于 2010-10-14 04:11 AM

这周有趣的是，牛和熊都减少了一点，骑墙的增多了。
wave 发表于 2010-10-14 05:29

谢谢．
今年会不会走出06年的行情？同样是MID-TERM，同样一路冲到年底？能不能看到06年秋天的AAII sentiment survey呢？

wave · 发表于 2010-10-14 04:31 AM

目前看还是上升趋势，还是等趋势反转以后再说，预测真的很难。下面是2006年的sentiment survey。

日期 bullish neutral bearish
1-5-06 29.35% 30.43% 40.22%
1-12-06 58.96% 21.97% 19.08%
1-19-06 50.00% 24.17% 25.83%
1-26-06 30.77% 35.90% 33.33%
2-2-06 44.70% 21.97% 33.33%
2-9-06 40.19% 25.23% 34.58%
2-16-06 40.18% 24.11% 35.71%
2-23-06 43.21% 28.40% 28.40%
3-2-06 40.94% 29.92% 29.13%
3-9-06 41.21% 28.02% 30.77%
3-16-06 46.55% 20.69% 32.76%
3-23-06 43.75% 28.75% 27.50%
3-30-06 37.21% 30.23% 32.56%
4-6-06 47.67% 29.07% 23.26%
4-13-06 45.36% 26.80% 27.84%
4-20-06 33.73% 25.44% 40.83%
4-27-06 42.11% 21.93% 35.96%
5-4-06 45.89% 20.55% 33.56%
5-11-06 54.90% 17.65% 27.45%
5-18-06 39.39% 16.97% 43.64%
5-25-06 33.04% 21.43% 45.54%
6-1-06 30.77% 19.23% 50.00%
6-8-06 26.23% 28.69% 45.08%
6-15-06 26.41% 18.61% 54.98%
6-22-06 34.40% 24.00% 41.60%
6-29-06 38.60% 21.64% 39.77%
7-6-06 37.70% 19.67% 42.62%
7-13-06 36.50% 24.09% 39.42%
7-20-06 23.85% 18.35% 57.80%
7-27-06 34.88% 22.09% 43.02%
8-3-06 31.46% 21.35% 47.19%
8-10-06 36.59% 21.95% 41.46%
8-17-06 30.53% 33.68% 35.79%
8-24-06 39.35% 23.23% 37.42%
8-31-06 41.57% 32.58% 25.84%
9-7-06 42.99% 27.10% 29.91%
9-14-06 47.95% 13.70% 38.36%
9-21-06 47.75% 18.02% 34.23%
9-28-06 51.32% 15.79% 32.89%
10-5-06 37.78% 15.56% 46.67%
10-12-06 48.98% 13.27% 37.76%
10-19-06 54.20% 16.03% 29.77%
10-26-06 52.17% 17.39% 30.43%
11-2-06 43.75% 19.38% 36.88%
11-9-06 50.60% 22.89% 26.51%
11-16-06 46.56% 22.90% 30.53%
11-23-06 41.94% 16.13% 41.94%
11-30-06 40.22% 12.29% 47.49%
12-7-06 38.94% 19.47% 41.59%
12-14-06 41.33% 20.67% 38.00%
12-21-06 39.08% 18.39% 42.53%
12-28-06 46.00% 18.00% 36.00%

jeff110 · 发表于 2010-10-14 05:34 AM

本帖最后由 jeff110 于 2010-10-14 07:39 编辑

目前看还是上升趋势，还是等趋势反转以后再说，预测真的很难。下面是2006年的sentiment survey。

日期 ...
wave 发表于 2010-10-14 06:31

非常感谢．巧合的是，06九月股市开始起飞时，sentiment里看牛的和眼下差不多．这玩意可能真是不适合揣顶．

wave · 发表于 2010-10-21 05:52 AM

这周牛和骑墙的都减少了

Simpletrader · 发表于 2010-10-21 06:09 AM

这周牛和骑墙的都减少了
wave 发表于 2010-10-21 07:52

seems more bullish

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