Simon Denham's Daily Market Comment

wave

从今天起，开始贴Simon Denham's Daily Market Comment。 个人感觉说的比较靠谱。作为一家之言共hutonger参考。

Simon Denham
Simon Denham is Chief Executive Officer of Capital Spreads’ AIM-listed parent company, London Capital Group. He founded Capital Spreads in 2003 having previously run the options and derivatives desk at another large spread betting firm. During his 25 years in the City he has held senior positions in a number of banks, including Christiania Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia and the Union Bank of Finland, and has built-up in depth experience of the financial markets.

wave

27-September-2010

So the younger Miliband pips his brother at the post to try to reverse Labour’s fortunes over the next few years and attempt to get back into power. Whilst the Unions have been instrumental in sweeping him to power, the new leader will have to tread very cautiously so as not to upset the people who voted him in and at the same time prevent a split party with New Labour on one side and the Old on the other.

The next few years in politics will be very interesting. If there was ever a good time to be in opposition it’s now when the current administration is making tough decisions and taking the action necessary to cut back the budget deficit and if we do fall back into a recession then the new Labour leader should benefit hugely. Unfortunately, there’s still a huge chunk of the electorate who can’t see the need to reign in government spending and if things get worse this group will get bigger, so there’re no prizes for guessing were he’ll position the party when it comes to the reduction of the budget deficit.

Labour have taken a big gamble in electing the young, relatively inexperienced and unknown Miliband, so time will tell if he can unite his party and take the challenge to the coalition.

Clients continue to have a bearish stance towards the market at the moment and there’s little surprise considering September is drawing to a close and despite October being historically a month of gains for the markets, when we’ve seen falls in October, they’ve been spectacular. The market never forgets and of course if was the crash of 87 that occurred in October and there was a crash of similar proportions in 08 after Lehman Brothers went under.

This morning’s price action has been slow and with little in the way of economic data today, we’re unlikely to see any pick up until tomorrow when we see UK GDP numbers and US consumer confidence. The bulls will be hoping for good data pointing to a sustainable recovery and tomorrow’s numbers, in particular consumer confidence, play a major role in that.

Currency markets are also on the quiet side with a bit of profit taking for the euro. EUR/USD is at 1.3440 with the trend still being firmly upwards. 1.3530 is the next target for the bulls while a break below 1.3410 could very well call the recent run higher into question. Cable is taking a breather hovering above 1.5800 so a break below here could send us lower to 1.5740, but the bulls will be targeting 1.5900 and then the magical 1.6000.

Gold continues to flit with 1300 and can’t quite make its mind up. It’s behaving like someone trying to pick up something hot, not able to quite get to it at the moment, but you get the feeling that once it has cooled down the flood gates could open and we could take on new highs with 1307 being one of the target levels. However, the longer we remain dithering, the more likely a retracement is but 1287 and 1284 should provide some support.

Crude’s consolidation continues and while doubts over the US recovery remain, the black stuff will struggle to make headway above $80. Still in the mid 70s traders are enjoying selling the highs and buying the lows as it remains range bound.

wave

wow，多谢班长慷慨解囊。

在水一方

shoujie

27-September-2010

So the younger Miliband pips his brother at the post to try to reverse Labour’ ...
wave 发表于 2010-9-27 16:18

   

wave

28-September-2010

Markets are heading lower again today right from the open as traders take fright from a 1.2bln Michelin Tyre rights issue (!?) and reports of further slowing in the US housing market.

The FTSE dropped almost 70 points in the first 20 mins of trading and longs are left wondering what caused the sell off. Oddly enough virtually everything is looking frail all of a sudden as the dollar recovers a bit from its recent weakness. Clients are left counting their shekels as most sold heavily above 5600 looking for a pull back which has been very kindly delivered. The 5500 to 5600 (roughly) trading range which has dominated for the last few weeks seems to have won out once again. As the dollar moves higher so Gold and Oil (as with the indices) take a battering and this overall directional symbiosis between all the asset classes seems to be confirmed.

Clients are now turning round and buying into the falls and it is very difficult to argue that they are wrong. There is no particular news out that would justify a return to bear market conditions (although the downgrading of Irish banking debt has not helped) so picking up stock on sell offs is, perhaps, still the game to play.

Corporate numbers today seem in line with expectations although the Michelin announcement seems to have caught markets on the hop but another drain on confidence will have been from the continual drip drip drip of minor job cut, no hiring policy reports (Morgan Stanley, RBS, Lloyds, BarCap etc) which do not align themselves with the overall bullish outlook that seems to have grown up over the last few months.

The FTSE is now at 5510 and, frankly, looking weak if it was not for the fact that we have bounced off 5490/5500 several times in the last few weeks things might look a bit grimmer. On Monday morning we looked like having a pop at the 5640 highs and now we are pushing on support. Traders will probably keep picking up positions from here down to 5490 (if it goes there) but a break and close below this point may well indicate a new bearish phase for the short term. Volumes across the markets remain very, very low indeed and it is hard to see where the investment banks are going to make their revenues for H2 ’10. No particular bad thing for the wider economy, but not great for the indices (even in their straightened condition the banks still make up a sizeable chunk).

Currency markets are looking dollar friendly for the first time in a while but we must beware the old dead cat bounce. Virtually every nation is trying their damnest to weaken their currency in a beggar thy neighbour spiral to the bottom but the US seems to be winning the contest just at the moment. The Pound and Dollar have their respective massive ‘twin’ deficits in their ‘favour’ whilst the Euro, Yen and Swissy only have a mere budget deficit to help out! The trio are overvalued at current levels but this mans nothing in the great sway of directional momentum as investors struggle to find safe havens.

The Euro is seeing support at 1.3375/85 and below here at 1.3330/40 resistance is at 1.3430/40, 1.3475 and pretty much bang on 1.3500.

Cable is likewise weaker this morning but we are seeing no follow through from the early sell off. Good Support is at 1.575/90 and below here at 1.5730/40. On the up side resistance can be seen at 1.5840/60

Gold is weaker today as we run out of buyers towards the 1300 level. The market is 10 bucks down on yesterday at support of 1286/88 and below here we have 1280/82 and then a whole swathe of supports for virtually every 10 dollars lower. If markets begin to look weak it might be stretching belief to think that Gold is going to finally peak but the psychological 1300 level may prove a temporary barrier.

Oil remains fundamentally wedded to the 75/76 dollar level trading this morning at 75.70. Over the last four months we have basically swung between 68 and 82 in wide swathes it is difficult to see this changing much in the near term. Support is at 75.40/50 and below here at 74.60/70 resistance is at 76.30/40 and 76.90/77.00.

wave

29-September-2010

The news continues to be twin pronged with housing, money supply and sentiment slipping and public sector debt soaring whilst actual business  (manufacturing and car sales) are reporting better than expected data.  The financial press and general comment is definitely veering towards the negative and with the EU fringes dipping back into recession it is easy to see why.

The PMI numbers out from the EU were poor by any standards with Germany’s particularly surprising as we were under the impression that they were doing rather well.  The German PMI was forecast to be marginally up and it came in substantially down.

While it is unwise to read too much into the data over the last summer (as it appears to have been a particularly ‘work free’ one across the UK and Eurozone) it is starting to alarm me that, even though we are now coming into the end of September, the number of people on short working weeks does not seem to be falling.  The Tax revenue side of the equation (from the Public Sector Cash requirements numbers) would also seem to indicate that both profits and personal income are substantially lower than a year ago.

As speculated yesterday the markets remain wedded to the 5490-5635 range although the grim US data yesterday did manage to briefly pull us lower.  Global growth remains robust (even though the ‘old world’ is suffering) and bigger companies (FTSE 350 etc) seem to be performing reasonably well which should prop up the indices for the time being.  For all of the poor data it is beginning to seem that only a substantial dip back into the mire will take equities seriously lower.

The FTSE is now at 5440 and looking reasonably comfortable for the moment. This said, Durable goods numbers are out of the States this afternoon and the forecast is for a reasonably positive number. If this number disappoints in line with other recent releases we may get a poor reaction. Support remains at 5490/5500 and resistance at 5595/5605 and 5625/35. Early action appears unlikely to threaten in either direction.

The Dow is also holding onto gains (just about) although at one point yesterday things were looking a tad nervous. 10645/55 and 10680/90 look to be important supports but there is quite a bit of resistance build above us as with selling pressure all the way up from the current 10710 level to 10755. Above here traders would be looking for another attack on 10800 where we failed on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Currencies also seem happy with their lot for the time being with the Euro remaining the coinage in favour for the moment. There has been no massive pull back from the post FOMC induced rally and the 1.3280/90 support held well this morning leading to buying across the board. The pound has struggled to gain traction in line with the Euro which may be a bit of a worry for the future although the fact that Government expenditure was 11pc higher this August compared to 2009 came as something of a nasty shock to the markets. It is an even nastier indication of how far the cuts will have to go just to halt the rise in spending let alone actually start to cut it back. In this environment we might have to get used to putting on the Sterling tin hat every time an economic release is announced. For Cable the near term resistance is at 1.5730/40 and support at 1.5640/50 with early action indicating pressure is more likely to be to the upside.

Gold remains at highs with the Spot price now at 1298 just a small pip away from 1300. As mentioned yesterday it would seem rude not to have at least a look at 1300 and this morning’s market seem to be intent on possibly having a go.  Support is at 1287/89 and any pull back will be likely to get to this point at least.

leftright

rosyrosy

greenback

90ufo

29-September-2010

The news continues to be twin pronged with housing, money supply and sentiment  ...
wave 发表于 2010-9-29 16:15

The PMI numbers out from the EU.... Durable goods numbers are out of the States this afternoon ..
-------- 这个POST评论的是9/23-9/24的事情吧. 怎么这么长的延迟啊

wave

嗯，查了一下，好像是有点不对。网站好像搞错了。今天再看看。

The PMI numbers out from the EU.... Durable goods numbers are out of the States this afternoon . ...
90ufo 发表于 2010-9-29 18:51

wave

check了，没错，这次好像是有点迟。不知道怎么回事。

wave

30-September-2010

The Eurozone problems seem to be raising their heads again this morning as the squeeze on Central Bank liquidity provision goes on apace. News that four smallish countries Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain have already used up 60pc of the