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| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
*Breakdown trend line, it’s time to take partial profits. |
| ST Model |
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*Long if SPY up tomorrow. The stop loss will be 1.9*ATR(10). | |
SHORT-TERM: MAY SEE REBOUND TOMORROW BUT PULLBACK IS NOT OVER YET
虽然chart pattern可以看作是breakout Head and Shoulders Bottom then back test neckline，因此officially，牛牛的姿态并不坏。不过，从最近我陆陆续续报告的bad signs看，至少短期牛牛并不乐观，a top was in or very close。
先说好消息，明天可能反弹，理由是TICK MA(3) too low，好像最近第二天都绿了，可能幅度还不小。此外，明天如果又red的话，不要忘了08/13 After Bell Quick Summary里的back test, buy at the SPY 4th consecutive red close and hold until the first up day since year 2000, you have 82% chances to win something.
下面简单的列一下最近陆陆续续报告的bad signs，作为对这一阶段的总结。打*号的表示今天又增加的信号。
- 09/17 Market Recap里提到了09/21 to 09/23是pivot date。So far 09/21 seems a top of some kind.
- 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps，17 unfilled gap, the max was 18。不要忘了09/02 and 09/08的back to back unfilled gap.
- 6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch, SPY bearish reversal day on 09/21.
- 09/21 Market Recap里提到VIX negative divergence以及率先close below EMA(20)是trend about to change的特征。
- 6.5.1a SPX and FOMC, red FOMC followed by a red day was a bad sign.
- 6.3.1b Major Accumulation Day Watch, 2 consecutive red days after a Major Accumulation day was a bad sign.
- *1.1.1 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily), 2 hollow red bars in a row, looks toppy.
- *On 09/16我提到AAII too bullish，今天最新的AAII还是too bullish。
- *SPX down 3 consecutive days in an uptrend usually means more pullbacks ahead.
- Just a reminder, don’t forget 6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch and 6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch, next week is not bull friendly.
下面看看今天新增的三个信号，特别要注意SPX down 3 consecutive days，我一直在说，a strong uptrend should never have 3 consecutive down days。
SPX down 3 consecutive days in an uptrend usually means more pullbacks ahead.
下面的back test是说SPX down 3 days in a row, 79% chances there’d be a close that is below today’s close within 10 days since year 2000. 这个应该多少证明了上面的more pullbacks ahead的结论。
最新的AAII Bull Ratio。
1.1.1 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily).
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BULLISH FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS
We could see 2 to 3 legs up while now is the very first leg up. See 09/17 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER SEPTEMBER TRIPLE WITCHING DOW DOWN 6 OF LAST 7
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after September Triple Witching, Dow down 6 of last 7. Five in a row 2002 – 2006 with heavy losses 2002 – 2005. Also see September’s Triple Witching for more statistics.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented. Any good/bad signs can be confirmed and confirmed and confirmed, there’s no end of confirmation, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to various risk levels therefore please don’t expect me to give specific buy/sell signals here.
* = New update.
Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
LA = Lateral Trend.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-9-23 07:13 PM
提升卡
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变色卡
发表于 2010-9-23 07:14 PM
