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[原创] SPX 预测

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发表于 2010-8-26 05:36 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


本帖最后由 kenwind 于 2010-8-26 19:37 编辑

SPX waves 07162010.png
SPY 080510.png
ES 081910.png
20100826-sc.png

I have been writing posts on forecasting SPX index direction since July. For those who visit my blog frequently, I think it is a good time to summarize how we've been doing so far.

On July 18 when SPX index was around 1065, I forecasted that it will move to 1120 level based on the wave counts. The original post can be found here.

Then on Aug 5th, after SPX index hit my target of 1120 level, I called the top reversal based on complicated Elliot wave formation and intermarket relationships between US equity and USD/CAD. The original post can be found here.

Again on Aug 19th, I opined on another post that SPX index will fail to move above the 50 day MA, based on candlesticks formation and some other indicators. The original post can be found here. In that post I also pointed out the most critical support level SPX index need to penetrate in order for the coming  big drop to take hold.

Today, we have it. SPX broke down the cement support level (1060-1075) and backed up to test it but failed! Now we are below the support line and quietly approaching the internal trend line highlighted in yellow. Once this line breaks, SPX index is likely to unfold a massive continued downside movement.

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发表于 2010-8-26 05:58 PM | 显示全部楼层
Good job
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发表于 2010-8-26 06:01 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 1# kenwind


   
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发表于 2010-8-26 06:01 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-8-26 06:16 PM | 显示全部楼层
Thanks!
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发表于 2010-8-26 06:18 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-8-26 06:19 PM | 显示全部楼层
thanks.
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发表于 2010-8-26 06:20 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 1# kenwind


    LaoDa,

    Do you think 950 can hold?
   
  Thanks,
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发表于 2010-8-26 06:24 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-8-26 06:36 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-8-26 06:45 PM | 显示全部楼层
thanks
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发表于 2010-8-26 06:48 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-8-26 07:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-8-26 07:24 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-8-26 07:29 PM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-26 07:39 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复  kenwind


    LaoDa,

    Do you think 950 can hold?
   
  Thanks,
abaqus 发表于 2010-8-26 20:20



    Abaqus,

I need to see the price pattern around 950 before I can make a call. I will keep all here posted when I see market turns.
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发表于 2010-8-26 07:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
Wow, good call!
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发表于 2010-8-26 07:46 PM | 显示全部楼层
Abaqus,

I need to see the price pattern around 950 before I can make a call. I will kee ...
kenwind 发表于 2010-8-26 21:39



    thanks,

  950 is based on 2 large leg down target, AB=CD, ideally..
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-26 07:55 PM | 显示全部楼层
thanks,

  950 is based on 2 large leg down target, AB=CD, ideally..
abaqus 发表于 2010-8-26 21:46



    There are lots of other TA indicators around 950. A confluence area, but whether that's the bottom remains to be seen.
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发表于 2010-8-26 07:59 PM | 显示全部楼层
3x
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