A long-time gold bull, Lamoureux is more cautious these days. Contrary to popular belief -- and that of recent guest
David Rosenberg -- his work shows “global liquidity is contracting fast” – a very bearish sign for gold prices, which
Lamoureux says have rallied because of fear of global instability not inflation.
The inflation worry feeds itself - when you have inflation, people wanna spend and chase various assets, leading to higher price of almost everything. This, again, reinforces the inflation worry.
However, when people realize inflation is not there, they stop chasing and take money out. This leads to lower price which reinforces the dis-inflation or deflation theory.
we will be swinging between fear of instability and inflation for a long time
Poo 发表于 2010-8-4 22:45
The current economy causes anxiety and stirs fear - but when the economy becomes somewhat a norm,
people will get used to it and worry less. So while in short term I can agree with fear/worry theory, I
won't expect it can last very long.
Gold was used as a hedge of weak $USD before 2008. Gold price dropped during the peak of crisis is a classic Minskey effect. Now, gold was used to hedge any uncertainty, just as your point out. GLD type ETF also add the fuel to gold price.
Here is my take: You need own some solid real gold as a real hedge for the worst.
Also, I am a gold bug so please just read my view for fun.
狗仔卡
发表于 2010-8-4 04:57 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2010-8-4 08:45 PM
