07/30/2010 大盘回顾（The Rebound Could be Over or Very Close）

Cobra · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:14 PM

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	1 of 2 are SELL
Intermediate	2 of 3 are BUY	5 of 5 are NEUTRAL	SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode
Short-term	Model is SELL	5 of 5 are NEUTRAL	Trend is down but I hold no short over the weekend.
GANN DAY	MOON/SOLAR	CYCLE	CONCLUSION
8/6,8/11,8/26	08/09 / 08/08	8/2,8/9,8/11,8/23	Next pivot date: 08/09 - 08/11, 08/23 - 08/26

BULLISH	0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so market bottomed?
BEARISH	0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so market topped?

SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	STOP LOSS	INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop	07/15 L	N/A	Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks.
ST Model	07/20 L	Breakeven

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE FIRST NINE TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST ARE HISTORICALLY WEAK

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac:

First trading day in August, Dow down 9 of last 12.
First nine trading days of August are historically weak.

The chart below is from Bespoke.

The chart below is from sentimentrader.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION SINCE 04/26 ISN’T OVER, THE REBOUND SINCE 07/01 IS OVER OR CLOSE

The bottom line:

从04/26开始的correction，没有结束。
从07/01开始的反弹，可能已经于07/27结束了，或者离结束不远了。目前暂时不确定是否还会有new recovery high (higher than 07/01 high)。

为什么说04/26开始的correction没有结束呢？

首先，correction的时间不够。见下图，我曾经提过，mini mini correction time是Fib 23.6% from 03/06/2009 low to 04/26/2010 high，这样就是08/02，从图上看，08/02多半不会low过07/01 low，因此显然不是correction over的日子，而如果07/01 low是the low的话，则correction time有点短，因此既然Fib 23.6%不是the low，那只能看下一个Fib 38.2% at 10/02有没有可能了。

其次，the rebound since 07/01比较弱，不象是大牛市。下面的图应该说明问题了。

为什么说从07/01开始的反弹可能已经结束了？下面的图也应该说明问题了。由于无法简单的back test，因此我大概看了一下2000年到现在所有SPX made a higher high以后第一次down 3 days in a row的情况，百分之七八十的情况都意味着a start of a little little bit bigger correction。此外，不要忘了，八月的seasonality不怎么牛牛友好，特别是the first 9 trading days。

这个a little little bit bigger correction，如果真有的话，会不会test 07/01 low？目前我还没法知道。

顺便说，最上面的关于时间分析的图里，还列出了很多时间点，08/02, 08/06, 08/09, 08/11, 08/16, 08/23, 08/26，都是大有来头的，至于market会对哪几个时间点做出反应，以及这些时间点意味着high还是low，暂时无头绪。先列出来，供参考。我个人比较看重08/09 to 08/11 and 08/23 to 08/26，这两个time window。

SHORT-TERM: MIXED SINGALS FOR THE NEXT MONDAY, I’M A LITTLE BIT BEARISH BIASED THOUGH

周五的After Bell Quick Summary里提到了green Monday的可能性大，不过从下面两个新证据看，似乎熊熊稍稍有希望些：

Long up shadow in 60 min chart，看起来此后回调的可能性非常大。

周五SPY跌了2分钱，但是TNX却跌了3%以上，大家知道TNX leads SPX，因此这多半不是好事情。Short at Friday’s close then cover at Monday close since year 2000, you have 72% chances。

下面的图来自sentimentrader，说明Rydex散户非常牛，而AAII散户也不熊，info only，因为我不希望看到谁谁谁comment，说是散户太熊了，所以要大涨特涨。

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – New update. Click BLUE* to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	UP
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): Bear Flag?; EEM:$SPX too high.
EUROPEAN	UP	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45; Bear Flag?
CANADA	DOWN	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	DOWN
GDX	DOWN
OIL	UP	4.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly): Bear Flag?
ENERGY	UP	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN
REITS	UP
MATERIALS	UP

hillcrest · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:16 PM

本帖最后由 hillcrest 于 2010-7-31 23:00 编辑

thanks for sharing!

老蛇和星星，有不同的意见了，听谁的呢

参考两方的意见，自己扎主意。

joep · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:21 PM

本帖最后由 joep 于 2010-7-31 22:23 编辑

 
TREND
MOMENTUM
COMMENT

Long-term
1 of 2 are SELL
 
 

Inte ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-7-31 22:14

joep · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:22 PM

joep 发表于 2010-7-31 22:21

joep · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:22 PM

joep 发表于 2010-7-31 22:22

joep · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:23 PM

joep 发表于 2010-7-31 22:22

shoujie · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:25 PM

Thanks

darren168 · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:37 PM

Thanks

vicvic · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:37 PM

dsp · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:38 PM

Thanks.

shoujie · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:38 PM

Wa-Sai, BEARISH report !

Bull has no hope ?

20108 · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:41 PM

sooners · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:42 PM

回复 1# Cobra

abaqus · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:43 PM

yes, now the price action is more likey a bear market rather than bull market...
hopefully, I am wrong...

anyway, great work! more

for you

neo · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:44 PM

babyruth · 发表于 2010-7-31 08:47 PM

wnd4 · 发表于 2010-7-31 09:05 PM

thanks

碧海潮生 · 发表于 2010-7-31 09:14 PM

ROOKIE2 · 发表于 2010-7-31 09:15 PM

great job!

najup · 发表于 2010-7-31 09:21 PM

Thanks!

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[技术分析] 07/30/2010 大盘回顾（The Rebound Could be Over or Very Close）

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[技术分析] 07/30/2010 大盘回顾 （The Rebound Could be Over or Very Close）

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[技术分析] 07/30/2010 大盘回顾（The Rebound Could be Over or Very Close）