关于滞胀----星兄请接砖

colderdown

首先要搞清楚什么是滞胀。我很懒，就随便古狗一个关于滞胀的东东贴在这里：

“Stagflation in the 1970s
From U.S. Department of State

Inflation Recession

The term "stagflation" -- an economic condition of both continuing inflation and stagnant business activity, together with an increasing unemployment rate -- described the new economic malaise. Inflation seemed to feed on itself. People began to expect continuous increases in the price of goods, so they bought more. This increased demand pushed up prices, leading to demands for higher wages, which pushed prices higher still in a continuing upward spiral. Labor contracts increasingly came to include automatic cost-of-living clauses, and the government began to peg some payments, such as those for Social Security, to the Consumer Price Index, the best-known gauge of inflation. While these practices helped workers and retirees cope with inflation, they perpetuated inflation. The government's ever-rising need for funds swelled the budget deficit and led to greater government borrowing, which in turn pushed up interest rates and increased costs for businesses and consumers even further. With energy costs and interest rates high, business investment languished and unemployment rose to uncomfortable levels.

In desperation, President Jimmy Carter (1977-1981) tried to combat economic weakness and unemployment by increasing government spending, and he established voluntary wage and price guidelines to control inflation. Both were largely unsuccessful. A perhaps more successful but less dramatic attack on inflation involved the "deregulation" of numerous industries, including airlines, trucking, and railroads. These industries had been tightly regulated, with government controlling routes and fares. Support for deregulation continued beyond the Carter administration. In the 1980s, the government relaxed controls on bank interest rates and long-distance telephone service, and in the 1990s it moved to ease regulation of local telephone service.

But the most important element in the war against inflation was the Federal Reserve Board, which clamped down hard on the money supply beginning in 1979. By refusing to supply all the money an inflation-ravaged economy wanted, the Fed caused interest rates to rise. As a result, consumer spending and business borrowing slowed abruptly. The The economy soon fell into a deep recession.


好了，回到主题，滞胀在美国有没有可能发生？最重要的一条是labor cost and labor market。60，70时年代，美国仍然是生产大国，制造业发达，而制造业里工会的力量强大，这就使labor有更多的发言权，在物价上涨时有更多的力量争取高工资，从而来应对高物价。而今天美国是以服务业为主，工会的力量几乎没有。相对工会力量大的public领域，也因为地方政府财政危机，而越来越引起大众的不满。所以，靠讨价还价提高工资，现在行不通。（欧洲可以）。第二，60，70时年代，没有新兴经济，不存在外界劳动力价格的制约因素。而现在是所谓的中国定价，再退一步说，即使中国有通胀，也很难回输美国，一来企业很容易转移生产线到劳动力价格更低的地方，如越南，二来，中国也不可能轻易失去出口价格优势，目前的产业向内地转移就是一例。所以，指望低端产业回归美国，从而提高就业率，劳动力价格和家庭收入，很难。第三，60，70年代，政府的“计划经济”有能力在一定范围内调控价格，而现在，几十年的deregulation，政府没有太多定价的能力，没有这个条件，也就不可能通过调控价格来引入通胀因素。相反，对金融业的规范改革，长远看是有利，但在当今情势下，又进一步收紧了信贷，伴随美国deleverage，信贷需求本来就不旺，所以连靠放贷来膨胀资产价格也行不通。

拙见还是一个deflation，reflation，deflation的过程。就是跌跌涨涨跌跌，小衰退不断，直到一个新的经济成长点开始或市场最终达到平衡。简单说，现在房价，股价还是太贵。

TMI

colderdown

回复 1# colderdown

Forget to mention:

"The The economy soon fell into a deep recession." This is bullsh#t.  High interest rate did not cause recession. The economy was already in recession. Just because of the FED increased rate and finally decided to fight inflation, the economy reached the equilibrium and built the foundation for another huge bull run (almost 16yrs).

X!nG

首先要搞清楚什么是滞胀。我很懒，就随便古狗一个关于滞胀的东东贴在这里：

“Stagflation in the 1970s ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-7-30 13:01

冷兄啊，你应该误解我了，我现在仍然在"debt deflation“的阵营里，

我从Jul.17号开始提“滞胀”的可能，是看到市场在闪烁这方面的信号。

妞妞

顶!

BlueRiver

what will happen if fed starts to buy government debt ?

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking ... p;asset=&ccode=

dividend_growth

统一冷兄的见解，这次危机绝对不会重复70年代那次，罗大师死套模式，有可能身败名裂。

colderdown

回复 5# BlueRiver

It is not a simple question about who is buying debt from who. The real question is what is the function of debt in real economy. Be honest with you, I have no answer for this one.

So, keep it simple, did you see more jobs? did you see salary increase? did you see getting loan easier? etc. If so, yeah, we may in inflation (or reflation). Remember, economics is not a real science.

QWE

美国就是一个大的日本模式，各种泡沫破灭后，只好长期消泡，也许20年，FED干什么都改变不了什么。杠杆率要降低，投资无处可去，只好东游西荡，搞搞震荡玩，工资下跌，房价股价下跌，首先通缩，消灭过剩的产能和过剩的服务能，比如银行倒闭，就是消灭过剩的银行服务能。其他行业继续倒闭关门，能源价格下跌，失业率继续上升，一直要等到经济转折点，才会开始从通缩转为通货膨胀，很多年以后了。

BlueRiver

回复 7# colderdown

yes, in classic economic theory, unemployment and capacity utilization will have the final say on the inflation/deflation, but in a crisis like this, probably need to think outside the box. The financial system probably would have collapsed if Fed stayed hands of and didn't buy MBS last year.  If Fed starts to buy the government debt, it could change the game completely again.

The leverage the government have on this guarantee from Fed could be huge, it can lower the tax ( personal and corporate  ) , buy back the student loan or mortgage, or loan to business. It can gear up the stimulus plan, build the infrastructure,  subsidize the industry like new energy ... all these will cascade to the market and jump start the economic

the effect could be amplified  : when the U.S. dollar is diluted and devalued, it will boost the export - U.S. still has a bigger manufacturing industry than China, believe it or not. Currently the corporate U.S. has record level or cash, trillions of dollars of cash, when the dollar is about to devalue, those corporates will  desperately looks for way to expand.

Obviously this is a rip off for those countries holding  u.s. dollar, China, Japan, Arabian ... and Fed how to deal with the balance sheet , but that's another topic

anyway, I agree that deflation is real, and is happening, but there is solution out there,. In the long term, the real crisis is probably the currency, gold price is already telling the story, but who cares, life is just one bubble after another

colderdown

回复 9# BlueRiver

Indeed. I had a discussion with a friend before regarding how we get out of this hole. We both agreed that the devaluation of $USD is the only way to go. So, in the long term, the weak $USD is the play. However, at least from US point of view, it shall not be the crash of $USD. The loss of "printing right " is far outweight any economic crisis. Furthermore, I am not sure US really want those lower end jobs back and be able to get those jobs back.

Cheap money is not all good. The corps have too much cash may not be a good thing either. The waste of money by corps may induce another crisis, such as corps' bonds crisis. My whole point is the so called inflation (stag or not) is highly unlikely, at least for now. Thus, trading up equities only based on inflation expection is a dangerous game. One day is not trend, one week is not either. My market view for now is:

"No position is the best position".

AGA7d

deflation 我没意见，但股价太高则未必，除非你看到死皮盈利走下坡路或利率很快上升。

蓝河的大段基本在理，我只是觉得美元危机还远，道理也很简单，老中手上有一万亿美债，是美国以外最大户，看起来很多，但美国所有资产该有5，60万亿。另外美债流动性好，还可以购买美国以外的资产。就是说，这钱还是有实物对应的。

还有一样，大家都没提到地下经济，我老觉得它规模不小。世界各地都有很多富人把资产转到美国，以在美有个落脚地为荣。老中不提，拉美国家的在美南诸州购置房产的就很多。

我过去很看衰美国经济，但去年底今年初我慢慢变了观点，经济是个复杂的东西，方方面面几角旮旯的，该先多了解，再慢慢形成自己的看法。

loveorlust

回复 6# dividend_growth

who is 罗大师?

BlueRiver

回复 10# colderdown


    "No position is the best position", maybe cash is also a position ?

楼上围棋兄说的对, 经济实在是太复杂了. P/E虽然不高, 但是多数公司都是revenue down, profit up,  而且很大一部分是来自海外, 并不意味米国的经济就一定好转. 我个人觉得还是小心一点好

希望见到更多冷兄 的帖子.

AGA7d

回复  colderdown


    "No position is the best position", maybe cash is also a position ?

楼 ...
BlueRiver 发表于 2010-7-30 18:36

说营收跌不太符合实际吧，如果GDP持平或涨一丁点，那营收也该持平或小涨。

counterspell

P/E 这东西变起来比小孩的脸还快. 不能太以此评定估价的合理性.

AGA7d

P/E 这东西变起来比小孩的脸还快. 不能太以此评定估价的合理性.
counterspell 发表于 2010-7-30 18:43

    话有道理但时机不对，几十年里很少有像现在这样经济不死不活的时候，换句话说，盈利在
下面一段时间内会相对稳定。

    不是我超自信，下个季度死皮盈利应该还更好一点。明年怎样？麻烦点，因为有税的问题，
跌一点可能，跌多我是不信的。企业已经处在自保阶段，只要消费没大问题，盈利哪会有大
问题？再傻的经济学家也不会预测明年消费会大跌，-1%可能，-5%就不太可能。

fieldingy

Right now most of the companies get better profit by cutting cost, this is not a good indication of recovery.

shoujie

话有道理但时机不对，几十年里很少有像现在这样经济不死不活的时候，换句话说，盈利在
下面一段时 ...
AGA7d 发表于 2010-7-30 18:57

消费没大问题？

好象不对吧。。。。有图为证（下图），今年以来零售指数（虚线）比大盘指数差多了：



从FA的角度看是，老百姓是能不花钱就不花钱币《--- 这和大家在这里谈的通缩是相互应证的。。。而且可以预测，老百姓经过这次危机，都有的存钱意识。这就是今年初调查的结果：美国老百姓存款额上升，并且明年会进一步增加到5%，THIS IS NOT A GOOD SIGN。。。。

BlueRiver

回复 14# AGA7d


   GDP 和 Revenue 不一定是正相关的, 比如产品没有卖掉作为库存, 是不计入Revenue但还是GDP

福多多

消费没大问题？

好象不对吧。。。。有图为证（下图），今年以来零售指数（虚线）比大盘指数差多了： ...
shoujie 发表于 2010-7-30 20:35

    说得太对了，换了往年俺一被套，轻易就给MM割肉了。今年在水下死撑也不再轻易割肉了，都是经济给逼的。