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The answer is: I don't know.
However, I do have my biases: short term bearish, intermediate term bullish and long term bearish.
I use McClellan oscillator on NYSI advance/decline volume rather than NYSE advance/decline line (i.e., 9 day exp moving average of net vol - 19 day exp moving average of net vol) to gauge short term market direction. In a bull market, the volume oscillator typically stays above zero line (where corrections are represented by move to the zero line and then bouncing off it) and in a bear market the oscillator stays below zero line (where counter-trend move usually fades out when this oscillator hits zero line). The volume oscillator had reached overbought level last Friday that represented peaks in May, June and July. I expect the volume oscillator to pull back towards zero line and this can only occur when we saw further move to the downside.
On the intermediate term, I believe we are still in a short term bullish phase simply because previous 3 bottoms have been reached with lower high on the volume oscillator in each instance and this is generally bullish. Given other risky assets (commodities, key FX pairs) also made lower high in each instance, I believe the bullish phase has some more time to run.
Longer term, IMHO, debt deflation is simply unavoidable and hence we should see a resumption of the secular bear market over the next few months. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-7-29 11:34 PM
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发表于 2010-7-29 11:50 PM
