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发表于 2010-7-25 09:34 AM
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h熊熊p://seekingalpha.com/article/216286-17-reasons-to-be-bullish-about-the-markets
AGA7d 发表于 2010-7-25 11:13 
应该是牛牛断章取义自己忽悠自己，看看他到底说了什么：
Hope Springs Eternal – 17 Points For The Bulls
Last week there was enough volatility to give you sea sickness even though the week finished positive. It has been a while since we have seen a week with some many swings greater than 1% but volatility has become the norm in this environment.
This past week David Rosenberg wrote an article which as picked up by the media immediately which extracted his 17 bullish points about the markets at a whole which was taken out of context. I have reprinted the article in its entirety so that you can see the point that he is trying to make.
“Optimism abounds over the European bank stress tests. So earlier concerns of a European economic meltdown have yet to occur and likewise regarding fears of a bubble‐bust or social unrest in China where signs of a cooling off in property prices have triggered expectations of an early exit from the government’s policy tightening program.
The safety of government bonds is losing a bit of an allure here as the 10‐year T‐note yield seems set to retest the 3% mark on the upside but let’s not lose sight of the visible slowing taking place right now in the U.S. economy. Sentiment is one thing; economic reality something else altogether. Be aware – the overwhelming consensus is for no double‐dip, for yields to rise and for a summertime equity market rally (which seems to have already occurred, though both Bob Farrell and Walter Murphy have recently entertained that view that this thing may have more legs).
On the technicals, a break of 1,100 on the S&P 500 would be widely viewed as a significant and positive near‐term development by many a chartist. While volume has been lagging (we highlight that below), what many a bull will point to is the fact that the ratio of new highs to new lows has risen now for …. three days running.
So what else are the bulls looking at right now?
1. Congress extending jobless benefits (yet again).
2. Polls showing the GoP can take the House and the Senate in November.
3. Some Democrats now want the tax hikes for 2011 to be delayed.
4. Cap and trade is dead.
5. Cameron’s popularity in the U.K. and market reaction there is setting an example for others regarding budgetary reform.
6. China’s success in curbing its property bubble without bursting it.
7. Growing confidence that the emerging markets, especially in Asia and Latin America, will be able to ‘decouple’ this time around. We heard this from more than just one CEO on our recent trip to NYC and Asian thumbprints were all over the positive news these past few weeks out of the likes of FedEx and UPS.
8. Renewed stability in Eurozone debt and money markets – including successful bond auctions amongst the Club Med members.
9. Clarity with respect to European bank vulnerability.
10. Signs that consumer credit delinquency rates in the U.S. are rolling over.
11. Mortgage delinquencies down five quarters in a row in California to a three‐year low.
12. The BP oil spill moving off the front pages.
13. The financial regulation bill behind us and Goldman deciding to settle –more uncertainty out of the way.
14. Widespread refutation of the ECRI as a leading indicator … even among the architects of the index! There is tremendous conviction now that a double‐dip will be averted, even though 85% of the data releases in the past month have come in below expectations.
15. Earnings season living up to expectations, especially among some key large‐caps in the tech/industrial space – Microsoft, AT&T, CAT, and 3M are being viewed as game changers (especially 3M’s upped guidance). Even the airlines are reporting ripping results.
16. Bernanke indicating that he can and will become more aggressive at stimulating monetary policy if he feels the need and yesterday urging the government to refrain from tightening fiscal policy (including tax hikes).
17. Practically every street economist took a knife to Q2 and Q3 GDP growth, which has left PM’s believing we are into some sort of capitulation period where all the bad news is now “out there”.
That is where the media stopped printing. Here is the rest of the story:
From our lens, this is still a meat‐grinder of a market. The bulls have the upper hand, but only until the next shoe drops in this modern‐day depression and post‐bubble credit collapse. The S&P 500 is still down 2% for the year, the Dow by 1%, the FT‐SE and Nikkei by 11%, the Hang Seng by 5% and China by over 20%.
Ask the bullish community if by this time of the year we were supposed to see bonds outperforming stocks – folks like our friends Byron Wien at Blackstone and Jim Caron at Morgan Stanley thought we were on our way to a 5.5% yield on the 10‐year T‐note. So let’s keep the whippy, albeit positive, action in the equity market into perspective. This is the sixth (!) multi‐week bounce in the equity market so far in 2010 and the year is barely seven months old.
So the best we can say is that we do have a tradable rally on our hands and that at the 50‐day moving average on the S&P 500 we also are at a critical technical juncture ‐ but remember, in a secular bear market, these rallies are to be rented, not owned. To be sure, 140 companies have reported so far and the news overall is good … but earnings are a coincident, not a leading indicator.
As for the bond market, it is quite remarkable that everyone focuses on what Ben Bernanke has to say and what the impact will be on equity market sentiment (we even field calls as to whether the Fed would ever buy equities!). Well, all we know is that historically, there is a 160 basis point spread between the Fed fund rate and the 10‐year T‐note yield, and a 210 basis point spread between the funds rate and the long bond yield. So at a minimum, all the Fed has to do is continue to pledge to keep the overnight rate close to 0% and then do the math as we embark on Bob Farrell’s Rule #1, which is classic mean reversion and you will see why it is that seeing the 30‐year down to 2‐1/2% is a far less controversial call than meets the eye.
And that remains the pain trade for many a fixed‐income portfolio manager who fear small numbers but do not see the huge potential gains in total return terms because of the power of convexity at today’s interest rate levels. The answer is “no” – there is not one way for bond yields to go in a prolonged deleveraging cycle, and “yes”, this is Japan all over again. The record‐low yield on the 2‐year note after a year of statistical economic recovery has already told you that (not to mention the need for the Fed at this point to even have to contemplate another round of quantitative easing)!
CAN YOU HANDLE THE TRUTH?
The suggestion that somehow generating 3% real GDP growth a year after a bottom is bullish ignores the deep the hole we are still trying to climb out of. Normally, two years after a recession starts, nominal GDP is up 16% and real GDP is up 7.5%. Currently, nominal GDP is up 1.1% while real GDP is down 1.5% from pre‐recession peaks.
According to earlier White House projections, that $800 billion fiscal gorilla unveiled last year was supposed to pull down the unemployment rate to 7% by now. Instead, we are at 9.5%. In fact, it's really even worse than that, for if the participation rate had stayed constant at the April level, than unemployment rate would be 10.2% today.
What about jobless claims? They lead employment. Below 400k, you can have a bullish stance. Above 500k – the opposite, and recession risks rise materially. Well, that rise in the past week to 464k from 427k was even worse than it appears because the non‐idling of auto plants this summer has given a temporary downward skew to the claims data – the underlying number is now closer to 475k. The upcoming seasonal factors that are "looking for" a decline are actually going to end up boosting the adjusted claims data and a test of 500k in the weeks ahead is a good bet.
What would that trigger?
Answer: more talk of a "double dip". Claims back above 500k would be horrible for the markets (not bonds though).
The earnings news has, on net, been positive but not a slam dunk. The stock market is responding well to the Q2 reports but remember that the quarter was skewed by a strong start – after all, April was when the ISM hit its peak (in other words, it would be reasonable to assume that much of the Q2 earnings growth was "front loaded") . The economic data are interesting because they reveal a serious loss of momentum as the quarter drew to a close and there does not appear to have been a pickup in July at least based on the limited amount of survey data at hand.
Housing is still in disarray – existing home sales are a bit of a lagging indicator but even with the extension of the tax credits to deals signed but not yet closed, turnover still dropped 5.1% last month ( ‐10% was expected) taking sales back to March levels.
What was more critical was the huge jump in months supply… now at 8.9 months' versus 8.3 months' in May – the highest since August 2009, and well above the 5‐6 months' that would typify a well‐balanced market.
Of course, we also had the "official" leading indicator come out and verify what the ECRI has been saying – when the financial market components are stripped out, the decline goes to ‐0.4% (as opposed to ‐0.2%) which is the second decline in the past three months. And the coincident/lagging ratio, a favourite among some pundits (like a book‐to‐bill ratio for the entire economy) dipped for the first time since February of this year.
The stock market still seems to be driven largely by technicals and momentum trading. The economy has clearly reached an inflection point and this won't be ignored indefinitely. The gains yesterday were large and broad‐based, but lacked volume again, which calls into question the overall level of conviction.
And the fact that the Treasury market retains such a positive overall tone is a development that is failing to ratify the whippy bounce in the major averages back to their 50‐day moving averages.
The summer rally came, we shall see soon enough if it is over, but with all the sturm and drang, let's face it – we’re exactly where we were one month ago – on June 22nd, the S&P 500 was sitting around 1,095. And with 10 of the 22 trading days producing moves of 1% or more, one usually has to go to Six Flags for rides like this (thanks Josh!).
EXISTING HOME SALES – GETTING EXCITING ABOUT A 5% DECLINE?
You know things are bad when economists and the markets are excited by the fact that existing home sales declined by “only” 5.1% MoM in June (as opposed to the ‐10% expected). The troubling aspect of this “better than expected number” is that it still skewed by the housing tax credit (in other words, there are still sales that were boosted by the tax credit that are included in this number; if not for the credit, sales would have been weaker).
The details were soft as well. Single‐family sales sagged 5.6%, following a 1% decline in May and condos slipped 1.5%. On a year‐over‐year basis, median prices managed to get back into positive territory. However, there remains very strong headwinds on the pricing front as months’ supply of inventory rose to 8.9 vs. 8.3, the highest August 2009. The inventory problem was especially apparent in single‐family sales, which jumped to 8.7 from 7.8 months. “ |
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发表于 2010-7-25 09:34 AM
