07/23/2010 大盘回顾 （Key Week the Next Week）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 1 of 2 are SELL     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode Short-term Model is BUY 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL Long on 07/23, hold over weekend because mini target isn’t met, not because the model says safe to hold over weekend. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 07/24, 07/27 07/25 / 07/23 07/26, 07/31, 08/02 Next pivot date: 07/26 – 08/03

BULLISH *0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC30 < –9, so bottomed? BEARISH *0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Overbought. *0.2.6 NYSE - Issues Advancing: Overbought.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 07/15 L N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model 07/20 L Breakeven

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE LAST TRADING WEEK OF RECENT MONTH WAS GENERALLY BEARISH

 

The next week is generally bearish for 2 reasons:

 

6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch.

 

 

6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch, the last 2 trading days of each month since Sep 2009 were mostly bearish.

 

 

Also according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, the first nine trading days of August are historically weak.

 

总结一下，就是seasonality会有大约3周的时间不怎么牛牛友好。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE 2ND LEG DOWN COULD START AS EARLY AS THE NEXT WEEK

 

目前我并没有什么证据说3 of primary wave 3 huge bull，因此还是暂时维持expect a 2nd leg down at least to test the 07/01 low的forecast，理由详见07/02 Market Recap and 07/16 Market Recap。从下周开始，到八月初，将是对我目前所掌握的pivot date预测技术的考验，因为从下周开始起，会有很多pivot date due，plus后面short-term session提到的NYMO and T2122终极武器，按理，大盘很可能在下周的某个时候发生反转，开始the 2nd leg down。

1. 如果indeed我的pivot date预测准确的话，the 2nd leg down may last to 08/23。
2. 如果下周到八月初，大盘不理会我的pivot date继续猛涨的话，那就很可能是repeat今年三月疯长的情形，because the same thing happened in March 2010 when none of my pivot date worked！

下面的图，加上table above的几个时间点，是我的pivot date的主要依据。

 

 

下表是我是怎么得到这些pivot date的，有兴趣的可以参考。至于为什么，就不解释了，涉及很多basic theory，非本报告应该的范围。

1. 07/26 is Fib 38.2% from 04/26 high to 07/01 low.
2. 07/26 or 07/27 is 8 to 9 trading day cycle due date since 05/13.
3. 07/24 and 07/27 are multiple Gann Day confluences date.
4. 07/25 is Full Moon.
5. 07/23 is Solar Term date.
6. 07/31 is 100% Fib extension from 10/11/2007 all time high to 03/06/2009 bear low.
7. 08/02 is Fib 23.6% from 03/06/2009 bear low to 04/26/2010 bull high.
8. 08/03 is Fib 50% from 04/26 high to 07/01 low.

综合以上时间点，我还是倾向于07/27 the Turnaround Tuesday的可能性最大。

 

下面的图是我的price target的主要依据，反弹最可能终止在1111 to 1121之间。

 

 

下表是我是怎么得到这些price target的，有兴趣的可以参考。至于为什么，就不解释了，涉及很多basic theory，非本报告应该的范围。

1. 1111 is Fib 61.8% of 07/01 low to 07/13 high projected on 07/20 low.
2. 1111 is Fib 61.8% of 06/08 low to 06/21 high projected on 07/20 low.
3. 1111 is Fib 61.8% of 05/13 high to 07/01 low.
4. 1111 to 1115 may contain MA(200) the next week.
5. 1113 is Fib 50% of 04/26 high to 07/01 low.
6. 1115 is Fib 161.8% of 05/25 low to 06/03 high.
7. 1118 is Fib 100% of 05/06 low to 05/13 high projected on 07/01 low.
8. 1121 is Fib 100% of 05/25 low to 06/03 high projected on 07/20 low.
9. 1121 is Fib 50 of 10/11/2007 all time high to 03/06/2009 bear low.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE BIG PULLBACK SOON

 

短期，可能很快就会有pullback，而且可能不小，理由除了07/22 Market Recap的WOW以外，周五的NYMO is way too high，下面是历次NYMO this high的记录，可以看到big pullback just days away。

 

 

T2122，这个是我看overbought/oversold的终极武器，目前虽然还不够extreme，但是已经不远了，牛牛要注意套利。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	*UP
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): Bear Flag?;*EEM:$SPX too high.
EUROPEAN	UP	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45; Bear Flag?
CANADA	DOWN	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP	*Testing trend line.
EURO	UP
GOLD	DOWN	4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
GDX	DOWN
OIL	UP	4.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly): Bear Flag?
ENERGY	UP	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN
REITS	UP
MATERIALS	UP

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