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本帖最后由 revolver 于 2010-7-24 01:11 编辑
I am still in bear's camp and started a SPX short position yesterday. The reason? The downward channel of SPX is not effectively broken yet. That said, from now on I am ready to change my midterm view anytime since technically bulls have a good chance to prove the breakout next week, but even though there should still be pullback and retest for bears to close out the position.
US treasury bond is at 127 and still in the uptrend.
JPYUSD is around the low zone of 87 after recent 2H&2S breakdown.
Gold still in consolidation after touch 1180 which is Fibonacci 38% from last upswing, it's still possible to retest Fibonacci 50% and previous neckline between 1154-1161 in next 2 weeks' time.
In general,
(1) The shapes of US treasury. gold & Yen are not giving any signs of credit expansion, price inflation or increasing risk appetite in the global markets.
(2) In Europe, the immediate market response to the result of bank stress test is positive, however the top politicians & central bankers are also reaffirming the tight fiscal stands.
(3) In U.S., ERs are showing some companies have made some balance-sheet profits in the past quarter, however the economic indices are signaling a slowing growth.
(4) In Asia, Japan DPJ government is essentially crippled after the recent upper house election, unable to push through any stimulative policy; China leaders have vowed to stabilize the economic growth in the past week, but this shouldn't be misunderstood as a return to QE. China government is going to have a very tough task (if not mission impossible) to balance between inflation and growth. They will switch stepping on brake and accelerator frequently and China & Hong Kong markets will fluctuate accordingly. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-7-23 11:01 PM
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发表于 2010-7-23 11:51 PM
发表于 2010-7-23 11:53 PM
谢谢。。。。。。。。
