07/22/2010 大盘回顾 （The Rebound May Have Further To Go）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Closed long entered on 07/22, no position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 07/24, 07/27 07/25 / 07/23 07/29, 07/31 Next pivot date: 07/27 – 07/31

BULLISH BEARISH 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: A little bit low.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 07/15 L N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model 07/20 L *Breakeven *Adjust stop loss.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER JULY EXPIRATION, DOW DOWN 7 OF LAST 11

See 07/16 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION ISN’T OVER YET

See 07/02 Market Recap and 07/16 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: THE REBOUND MAY HAVE FURTHER TO GO

 

我猜，短期反弹应该可以反弹一阵， 理由很简单，看下图，最下面的黑棒棒，很高的时候，啥时候正好是顶部的？这个道理就跟刹车，需要先减速才能停下来是一样的，breadth很strong，相当于是加速的时候，因此多半不会一下子就掉下去的。

 

 

如果你同意上面的图说的more upside to go的话，下面的图是Estimated price and time target。For time target，如果按mini 5 trading day rebound计算的话，就是07/27 or 07/28，see table above，正好有multiple Gann Day due，且07/27是所谓的Turnaround Tuesday，plus不要忘了6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch，每个月的最后2天都bearish，因此看起来07/27 to 07/28可能性大些。

 

 

有两个地方，提醒大家注意一下，不一定明天就起作用，但是由于这两个因素的存在，我不认为反弹能走多远。

 

0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，VIX并没有配合今天的大涨，连着2个reversal bar，可能要反弹，这对大盘不利。下面的VIX:VXV还是低，不好。

 

 

Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative TICK (courtesy of sentimentrader)，又是WOW，前10次WOW的时候，大盘几天内均有较大的下跌(See 07/13 Market Recap, 06/30 Market Recap, 06/25 Market Recap, 06/02 Market Recap, 05/26 Market Recap, 05/18 Market Recap, 05/12 Market Recap, 05/03 Market Recap, 04/29 Market Recap, 04/20 Market Recap and 04/14 Market Recap)，看看这次还灵不灵吧。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	*UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	DOWN	4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly): Ascending Broadening Wedge, target $54.79.
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): Bear Flag?
EUROPEAN	UP	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45; Bear Flag?
CANADA	DOWN	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	DOWN	4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
GDX	DOWN
OIL	*UP	4.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly): Bear Flag?
ENERGY	*UP	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN
REITS	*UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	*UP	4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $27.35.

萧秋水

haha ,沙发!!!

nanosensor

Ding!

luren999

回复 1# Cobra


    :(63:(63

萧秋水

还送板凳!!????

hillcrest

先谢再读！

xiaochong

ding

xiaochong

ding

xiaochong

ding

wangbin

safa

try_again

thanks

vicvic

yingying

蛇大，今天还是MAD吧？所以明天开跌的几率不大吧？虽然你又WOW了，可能得推迟一两天吧？

happyface

thanks

开小差

thx, ding

ddr

oldpigwang

Wow, Sofa!!!

xiaochong

顶了3次也没抢着沙发

oda

胡同儿串子

wow