Revolver Weekly Review - 100710

revolver

In SPX weekly chart, 1228 is Fibonacci 62% from Nov07 high and Mar09 low. This is also a strong resistance area formed by 2 previous support lines at 1252 and 1199. SPX looks having reflected after testing this area in Apr10. MACD and RSI readings are bearish. Hence I don't see the big trend turning up anytime soon. Notably 1013 is Fibonacci 38% which has provided some short-term support, while 880 is a more congestive area and Fibonacci 24% which can be a double-dip defining point later.


If we redraw Fibonacci from Mar09 low to Apr10 high, 1008, 943 and 877 are the next important levels. 1008 is very close to 1013 in the 1st chart and has already proven supportive. 877 is almost overlapping with 880.


Zoom in the daily chart, it looks SPX is touching highs and lows after every 2 weeks' time (red & green arrows). Why 2 weeks' cycle? Nobody knows the exact reason. But if this trend resumes, probably SPX will touch a high or low 2 weeks after 5th July, which is next Friday or the Monday after. The question is, high or low?


Let's say, that SPX continues going up and touches a high point 1 weeks later. Then possibly we will reach 1110 according to the downtrend extended from the waterfall on 6th May, with the solid red line a parallel at Fibonacci 62% of channel hight. Reward/risk good? Enough meat? Not for me at the current price and given a downtrend market. Also take note in the past 3 months there are 4 lows but only 2 highs, and the wave between May and June failed to rise above the solid red line. So there is also a good chance that SPX turning down from here.


4-hours chart, overbought RSI with a narrowing MACD.

ut1984

jeff110

厉害

quickcow

顶手枪！

Diver

In SPX weekly chart, 1228 is Fibonacci 62% from Nov07 high and Mar09 low. This is also a strong re ...
revolver 发表于 2010-7-9 23:27

revolver

Generally, US recovery is only a balance-sheet recovery at a slowing pace after the effect of QE1 recedes. People are starting to talk QE2 now, but that won't be anytime soon.

navybean

Ding

aveda

Ding

cartier

xnz

thanks

f16f16

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dingdingdang

Thanks!

sooners

回复 1# revolver


   

southware

顶老大

belmonthill

Good stuff! Thanks...

feng

austinjoe

Market has to drop really hard and fast enough to cause panic to get QE2 out, otherwise it may be an orderly slow drop.

....  People are starting to talk QE2 now, but tha anytime soon.
revolver 发表于 9/7/2010 21:25

sexydaytrader

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