07/01/2010 大盘回顾 （The low today may not be the low）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 2 of 2 are SELL 3 of 6 are OVERSOLD SPY ST Model is in SELL mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 07/07-07/11 07/11 / 07/07 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 07/07-07/11

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC < –9%, bottomed? 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: MDD > 35, bottomed? BEARISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): bearish engulfing was bearish for the next several weeks. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top to be confirmed.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model *07/01 S 1.9xATR(10) *May not be a good timing, so be careful. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 06/30 S N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

See 06/25 Market Recap for more details.

 

更正一个错误，昨天的seasonality chart贴错了，下面才是7月的seasonality chart。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE LOW TODAY MAY NOT BE THE LOW

 

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，今天的market action很encouraging，收了个Hammer，非常有the low was in的架势。

 

 

不过，我认为the low today may not be the low。

 

最主要的理由是这么大的下跌动力，一般至少是2 leg down，从下面的图可以看到so far只有1 leg down，因此没完yet。

 

 

0.1.2 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，QQQQ down 9 days in a row，也是说这么大的下跌动力不会第一次反弹就成功。再次提醒一下过去QQQQ连跌7天以上以后都发生了什么，see chart below。

 

 

6.3.2a Major Distribution Day Watch，关于Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume to NYSE Up Volume Ratio >= 9)的trick可能大家都熟悉了，most likely a green day the next day，那么如果the next day不是green而是red，the next next day还是red呢？看下面的图，好像是短期反弹以后继续跌是吧？

 

 

 

The chart below is just a follow up for 06/29 Market Recap since some people are asking: Now the very basic bottom condition – NYMO positive divergence has finally been met. Well, again the lesson learnt here is we should try our best not to think that MAYBE THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT!

 

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT REBOUND SOON, TIME TARGET COULD BE AROUND 07/07 TO 07/11

 

短期可能会有反弹，上面的intermediate-term session其实也都说了会有short-term rebound （否则咋会有the 2nd leg down呢？）。今天的After Bell Quick Summary里也提了一个理由，both VIX and SPX red，明天有76%的机会green。下面是另外两个理由。

 

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, SPY down 4 days in a row, buy at close today sell at close tomorrow since year 2000, you have 80% chances.

 

 

下面的图是时间上的理由，看红圈圈，前两轮的下跌都是8 trading day，而现在这一轮的下跌，到今天正好也是8 trading day，所以非常有可能下跌已经结束或者非常接近结束了。See green lines above，因为过去三轮的反弹是在5 to 9 trading days之间，所以非常可能，下面的反弹会持续5 to 9 trading days。考虑到table above里的几个时间点，Gann Day (07/07 to 07/11), New Moon (07/11) and Solar Term date (07/07)，这样，反弹如果有的话，应该会持续到07/07 to 07/11左右。 顺便说，下面红色998.44 and 977.22意思是说如果现在这轮下跌相当于前两轮的跌幅的话，应该跌到这两个红色线区域，so far现在离这两区域还远，因此不能排除明天或者下周继续跌至红色区域的可能，当然，这个可能性比较小，因为下面的蓝色Fib confluences area (see 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly) for how I get the confluences area)是个strong support，而今天SPX就是在这个area开始强烈反弹的。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

	TREND	*DTFMS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	*DOWN		ChiOsc a little too low.
IWM	DOWN	SELL	Ascending Broadening Wedge breakdown, target $54.97.
CHINA	DOWN
EMERGING	UP	SELL
EUROPEAN	UP
CANADA	DOWN	SELL
BOND	UP		Breakout but ChiOsc is way too high now.
EURO	*UP	*BUY
GOLD	UP	*SELL	4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
GDX	UP	*SELL	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high.
OIL	*DOWN	*SELL
ENERGY	DOWN		ChiOsc a little too low.
FINANCIALS	DOWN
REITS	UP	SELL	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	DOWN	SELL

nanosensor

Ding!

X中国陆军

jackyking

surya

Thanks!

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

skipjack

Thanks

fara

aha, first page

xsngli

ding

bayliner1979

1st page

abracadabra

jiangnanhao

ding

lijinglj

navybean

Thanks a lot.

sunnysunny

wangbin

Cobra LD,为什么最近天天跌,可是money flows还是表明钱在向市场里流进？http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public ... scan-moneyflow.html

jiuguangw

The ST model signal today - is this the old model or the new and improved model?

happyface

2 leg down一般来说几天会出现?

COS

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