Today SPX closed below key support at 1040. However, instead of a stream of cascading stops being hit adding fuel to to the fire, the drop fizzled out with a sharp short-covering rally in the last 10 minutes before cash closed (it was mostly locals covering who went short shortly after LOD was printed - they must have thought there would be a large number of stops as well). That makes the break suspect right now in my opinion. AP bourses have opened and they are mostly fading the overnight gap. Tonight could be another one where overnight moves triggers all the short stops for a melt-up move.
I, for one, am still bullish at the coming earnings season. The technicals are hurting, but the fundamentals are not bad at all.
Today I was hoping for a green day - very oversold, end of month window dressing, and strong support at 1040. The capitulation did not trigger a sharp rebound, despite the volume was low most of the day. It is just a lack of buying.
Lacking of buying is because that people are waiting for the key data in the next several days. I agree with you that there is good possibilty that the market will rebound once the ER season begin.....All we need now is to get people's confidence back with several good ERs. Remeber that the expectation is low now........ Hehe
"end of month window dressing"?
I remember Cobra pointed out several times actually it is very common market dropped on the last trading day.
His back test model of short setup on the last 3 days a month is very reliable in terms of winnig rate.
Knowing what papers and locals are doing gives you a distinct advantage. Following paper alone wouldn't. Locals in fact make their $$ by fading the papers and they get their way most of the times but yesterday wasn't one of those days. I think most pit locals lost everything they made in June yesterday.
狗仔卡
发表于 2010-6-29 07:26 PM
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变色卡
发表于 2010-6-29 08:43 PM
