星星请进-lower import price+higher export price=upside risk of PPI&CPI?

Diffusion

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1 ... tml?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI

Separately, the import/export price indices show a favorable shift in the terms of trade and import prices fell and export prices rose.

Import prices fell 0.6%, about half what the consensus expected and follows a 1.1% increase in April. Most of this reflected a 5% decline in petroleum prices, the biggest drop in a couple years. Excluding petroleum and other fuels, import prices would have risen by 0.5%. Capital goods import prices rose 0.2%. Export prices in contrast were up 0.7% in May after a 1.2% increase in April. Excluding agricultural goods, export prices were up 0.6% following a 1.3% rise in April.

On balance, the data points to some upside risk for the upcoming PPI and CPI reports.

Diffusion

谁把星星气走了，来回答一下我这个问题。回答不出来，哼哼....

that_is_it

赫赫，好象，星星做熊的时候，牛牛天天向他挑战，  
星星做披着牛皮的熊熊的时候， 熊熊天天说他叛变。
虽然星星有些委屈，不过非常可能星星的方向是对的。
1050，1060的时候，大家把星星捧到天上，我就有点怕怕，是我收了部分空仓获利的原因。

老黄

price paid index lower doesn't mean price lower.
the index is to measure the change of price.
since it is above zero, the price is still going UP.

to be continued.

hbw

回复 1# Diffusion


    美国经济的本质没有什么改变。美元突然加息才是杀手锏，所以现在热身。加元是第一个改口突然加息的，美元加息可能性大增。

老黄

Empire State Manufacturing Survey states that the inventory level remain near zero level.
future outlook on price is steady up.

Firms plan on capital expenditure has a positive change.

So, yes, on balance ......
(The sentence is not to interprate the price indices alone, it is about the whole report)

Whigs

回复  Diffusion


    美国经济的本质没有什么改变。美元突然加息才是杀手锏，所以现在热身。加元是第 ...
hbw 发表于 2010-6-15 20:20

    在中期选举前加息的可能性微乎其微（无限逼近0）。

Diffusion

price paid index lower doesn't mean price lower.
the index is to measure the change of price.
sinc ...
老黄 发表于 2010-6-15 20:17

    Really? The news report did say that

import prices fell and export prices rose

Diffusion

回复  Diffusion


    美国经济的本质没有什么改变。美元突然加息才是杀手锏，所以现在热身。加元是第 ...
hbw 发表于 2010-6-15 20:20

    Yes, and Fed tested a tightening tool today

Diffusion

Empire State Manufacturing Survey states that the inventory level remain near zero level.
future ou ...
老黄 发表于 2010-6-15 20:22

    I would accept this explanation.

老黄

Really? The news report did say that
Diffusion 发表于 2010-6-15 21:01

    then you should check its definition and the original report.

Diffusion

then you should check its definition and the original report.
老黄 发表于 2010-6-15 21:13

    This is what I found, you are right!

http://bloomberg.econoday.com/by ... g&year=2010#top

This is the original report. On the chart both it shows that both indices are yoy changes, and both remains positive so far.

AGA7d

我的看法是不要解读太多 -- 影响因素较多，跟市场联系也不是那么密切。

Diffusion

我的看法是不要解读太多 -- 影响因素较多，跟市场联系也不是那么密切。
AGA7d 发表于 2010-6-16 00:20

    多吉 (if I remembered correctly) every suggested being a data reader, not a news reader. IMHO, the news is what the media want you to believe, while the data reflect the fact. Any serious FA should be based on a portfolio of data points, that's why I'd like to understand the meaning of this particular one. I would agree with you that one piece of information may not necessarily be the game changer, but that simply means that we shouldn't ignore any piece of information. Thanks for your comments.

X!nG

谁把星星气走了，来回答一下我这个问题。回答不出来，哼哼....
Diffusion 发表于 2010-6-15 19:31

晕倒，哪那么容易生气，我又不是气筒。

上文结论的"upside risk ”是针对今明两天PPI&CPI的数据预期（consensus）而言的，

由于昨天的数据全部好于预期，特别是import prices受到美元走强影响，价格下降（m/m）却只是预期的一半，

所以不出意外的话，今明两天的PPI (consensus -0.5%)&CPI (consensus -0.2%)都会好于预期。

PS 看了昨天Diffusion兄弟的灌水很是感动，谢谢。

Diffusion

晕倒，哪那么容易生气，我又不是气筒。

上文结论的"upside risk ”是针对今明两天PP ...
X!nG 发表于 2010-6-16 02:04

     太客气了。 What I did for you hardly matches what you did for the entire forum. I just felt obligated to speak out and protect my own interests.

X!nG

太客气了。 What I did for you hardly matches what you did for the entire forum. I  ...
Diffusion 发表于 2010-6-16 03:03

老兄实在言重了！！

AGA7d

太客气了。 What I did for you hardly matches what you did for the entire forum. I  ...
Diffusion 发表于 2010-6-16 03:03

还是星星厉害，啥都能说出个道道来。

PS, 昨天有人说星星是让BEAR007给气走的，我说咋会呢，老股民呐。

AGA7d

多吉 (if I remembered correctly) every suggested being a data reader, not a news reader. I ...
Diffusion 发表于 2010-6-16 00:43

美元涨，石油等跌，从中国进口商品涨，不容易缕出个道道来。而且这些因素经常在变动，象油价，汇率等。这些对经济肯定有影响，不过现在将来一下子读不准，所以我说看淡点。。。也是我的鸵鸟政策，呵呵。

爱在雨中

回复  Diffusion

    美国经济的本质没有什么改变。美元突然加息才是杀手锏，所以现在热身。加元是第 ...
hbw 发表于 2010-6-15 20:20

加元加息是因为商品火爆导致对通货膨胀的联想。美国加息没理由，至少现在加息没理由。
估计要等到2010年八月份才有可能出现第一次美元加息（只是有可能）。