06/09/2010 大盘回顾 （A Few Institutional Charts）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 06/11-06/14 06/12 /06/21 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 06/11-06/14.

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Bottomed? 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottomed? 05/20 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Indicator Score from sentimentrader is too low. 6.3.1 Major Accumulation Day Watch: Bottomed? 05/28 Market Recap: II survey shows too many people are expecting a correction. *0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too high. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Positive divergence missing, so one more down leg ahead? CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 06/04 S 1.9xATR(10) Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 05/11 S N/A Partial profit on 05/28. OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN SELL Ascending Broadening Wedge with partial rise? IWM DOWN SELL Ascending Broadening Wedge with partial rise? CHINA DOWN EMERGING DOWN *BUY 4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): Double Top? EUROPEAN DOWN SELL 4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. CANADA DOWN SELL BOND UP BUY EURO DOWN   Descending Triangle breakdown, target $117.21. GOLD UP BUY 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP BUY OIL DOWN *BUY ENERGY DOWN SELL FINANCIALS DOWN   REITS DOWN   MATERIALS DOWN   4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Double Top? Target: $23.37.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: A LITTLE BIT BEARISH BIASED THE NEXT WEEK

See 06/04 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, TIME TARGET AROUND 06/11 TO 06/14

See 06/04 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: STILL DOESN’T LOOK LIKE A BOTTOM

 

今天没啥说的，review一下最近讨论的几个看底的图，再顺便看看几个institutional charts吧。到目前为止，我只能说，如果，history repeats itself，或者过去的经验还有用的话，看起来不象是到底了。

 

这个一直在讲，NYMO missing positive divergence。

 

 

这个也讲过，Volume看起来不象，没有capitulation。

 

 

下面是另一个没有capitulaiton的证据，我的blog的访问量呈下降趋势，说明nobody is nervous (when people are nervous, they will search on the internet for reasons and therefore the visits to any financial blogs will surge)，我不记得以前到底前是这个样子的。

 

 

当然，你说it’s too obvious不是底，and too many people too熊，所以MM (so called market maker theory which I don’t believe at all) will push the market higher。可能吧，我不能说你错，不过下面的Close up chart of Long Term Trending Fed Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows (courtesy of stocktiming)，看起来不象MM很有钱的样子。

 

 

Again the Institutional Buying and Selling Trending chart from stocktiming，institutions (also part of so called MM) are still in distribution mode。

 

 

Mutual Fund cash level (courtesy of sentimentrader) is at a historical low，也是说MM没有钱，所以也不能指望mutual fund。

 

skipjack

safa? Thanks cobra

LadyLucy

wangbin

板凳

Fan8an

第一页

slcgh

占个位，再细读！

oldfox

cartier

BGU

THANKS

happyface

一帮穷困户

songjiang

谢老大

redwendy

谢谢老蛇！

cc2265

X中国陆军

weigoodone01

quickcow

比较靠前！

littlevivi

底呀底，等的好辛苦
cobra老大能不能讲讲你说的底是短期的还是长期的呢？

Alchemist

开小差

thx ding

胡同儿串子