06/03/2010 大盘回顾 （Key Day Tomorrow）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY? 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode MOON/SOLAR GANN DAY CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 06/12 /06/06 06/05-06/07, 06/11-06/14 Week of 06/04, 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Looks like 06/06 (+-) could be the pivot date.

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too high. 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Bottomed?  6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottomed? 05/20 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Indicator Score from sentimentrader is too low. 6.3.1 Major Accumulation Day Watch: Bottomed? 05/28 Market Recap: II survey shows too many people are expecting a correction. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Positive divergence missing, so one more down leg ahead? CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model *Sell short if SPY tomorrow’s close < tomorrow’s open. The stop loss will be 1.9*ATR(10). Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 05/11 S N/A Partial profit on 05/28. Others     OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN *BUY IWM DOWN SELL CHINA DOWN EMERGING DOWN *Bearish reversal bar? EUROPEAN DOWN BUY 4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. *Bearish reversal bar? CANADA DOWN BOND UP *SELL *0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield, black bar, so yield will fall, bond shall rebound? *ChiOsc is way too low. EURO DOWN *SELL *Descending Triangle breakdown? Doesn’t look good. GOLD UP SELL 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. *Double reversal bar confirmed, so more pullback ahead? GDX UP SELL OIL DOWN ENERGY DOWN SELL FINANCIALS DOWN   *Bearish reversal bar? REITS DOWN SELL *Bearish reversal bar? MATERIALS DOWN SELL *Bearish reversal bar?

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEK IS BULLISH BUT JUNE HAS BEEN THE 2ND WORST MONTH OF THE YEAR OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS

See 05/28 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MAINTAIN PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, II SURVEY MAY MEAN A HUGE REBOUND AHEAD

Maintain the intermediate-term target around 1008 to 1019 (See 05/21 Market Recap for more details) but since II survey shows too many people are expecting a correction, so if the past II survey pattern repeats again this time, it’s possible that we might see huge rebound, even new high before the real correction kicks in. See 05/28 Market Recap for more details.

 

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: KEY DAY TOMORROW

 

明天是万众瞩目的Non Farm Payrolls day，非常关键。见table above，今天的After Bell Quick Summary已经提了，明天如果还能涨的话，short-term buy signal就算confirm了，SPY ST Model的short setup也会作废(assume Close > Open)。下面的图是自2009年3月以来所有Non Farm Payroll day的情况，可以看到，generally bullish，同时多半也是turning point。所以again，明天很关键。

 

 

关于short-term的方向，我现在只能说目前稍稍牛bias，简称牛B。理由除了上面提的Non Farm Payroll day generally bullish以外，下面是很久没有提的n vs n rule，至少看起来down momentum已经不如up momentum了，plus不要忘了，table above的bottom signal都还放在那呢，因此短期牛B的可能性大些。

 

 

Non Farm Payroll day的一般的规律，提醒一下，是高开低走或低开高走。下面的资料来自Bespoke:

If Friday’s report comes in strong and the market opens up big, the short-term trade is to sell. If the report
comes in weak and the market opens down, the short-term trade is to buy.

 

nokia

wishful

Thanks

navybean

THanks a lot.

hifive

songjiang

wow thanks cobra

t-k

oda

Jennyahwu

Cobra , you give the detail for trade. :)

hillcrest

多谢！

harley

hannah

好一个牛B.......班长  

RSIFAN

Thanks!

cartier

newnewhand

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

vicvic

Cobra

Cobra , you give the detail for trade. :)
Jennyahwu 发表于 2010-6-3 20:50

    I've been giving trading signals for awhile.

jilier

wangbin

thanks