The Global Effect of the FIFA World Cup on the Stock Market

Whigs

大格局对牛牛不利。下周如果走高，也许是牛牛逃命的最后机会。

Recent studies show that psychology and mood affect stock prices. With
increasing stress investors become more risk averse, and are therefore
inclined to sell stocks. As regards to the World Cup soccer games, the
stress of the fans of a losing country leads to extreme phenomena, e.g. an
increase in heart attack rates, changes in workers productivity, etc. We
show that alongside the local effect, the World Cup sporting event is also
associated with a long lasting global effect, i.e. with substantial low
returns in the U.S. stock market. Investigating eleven World Cup events
during a period of 41 years, reveals that the average return on the U.S.
market over the World Cup's global effect period is -6.25% (-46.6% annually!
) relative to +1.27% (10.6% annually), corresponding to all-days average
returns for the same period length. These results are statistically highly
significant and stable under rigorous robustness checks.

Whigs

谢老大置顶褒奖!

更感谢老大日复一日、持之以恒提供宝贵市场统计、分析！！！

crasher

goodness gracious...
olympics must have been detrimental too~~~

bigbadwolf

股市低回报更可能的原因是美国的期中选举。

Whigs

回复 4# bigbadwolf

I don't think so...
Though I could not find data to support it, I heard the similar theory that Eroupean and South American stock markets performed even worse during the World Cup periods...

dividend_growth

2006, 2002, 1998, 1994, 1990, 1982, 1978, 1974, 1970, 1966, 1962要么是大熊市，要么有很大的回调。

bigbadwolf

06年7月调整就结束了。98年是LTMC， 94年时FED加息；90年是是上次房地产泡沫破裂。

navybean

Thanks.

sooners

回复 1# Whigs


   

HTER

Alchemist

that's amazing. 看看是不是和四年循环及月份有关，都可排除的话，问题大了。

丛林法则

牛牛胆寒........

bilko540