话说这次调整

AGA7d

导火索表面上是欧洲债务危机，我认为实际上是对长期超买的一个调整。即使不是欧洲债，大MM也会找出个别的借口来搅盘，一个直接的原因是基金手上现金太少，2%的水准在历史上也少见。

调整幅度不小，从最高1212 到 1067 （以收盘价算），跌幅达12%，算得上深度调整。再跌多点就不能叫调整了。这次底实际比二月那次还高些，二月最低收盘是1056。

我这次是只多不空，道理很简单。公司盈利好，利率很低，除非大崩盘，没有道理不涨回。但大崩盘的可能性现在有多大呢？美银行系统资金并不匮乏，欧元区有些问题，但政客们会把问题糊起来。总而言之，往下一两年应该以多为主，空为辅。

oldpigwang

导火索表面上是对长期超买的一个调整, But, No.     NNNNN
Fear!!  Bank Run away.

ByStander

如果说FA，
1。现在正是经济刺激计划发挥效力的顶峰。再往后刺激的效果会逐渐减低。除非有新的刺激方案出台。
2。公司盈利是在增加，不过revenue并没增加多少。有报道说今年一季度sp500的revenu没比去年同期增加多少，绝大部分盈利的增加是靠cost cutting得来得。这种增长不可能持续。
3。银行的钱是不少，不过没有多少在往外借钱，大多是把钱用在trading上。

AGA7d

如果说FA，
1。现在正是经济刺激计划发挥效力的顶峰。再往后刺激的效果会逐渐减低。除非有新的刺激方案出台 ...
ByStander 发表于 2010-5-28 08:21

这么低的利率，不需要盈利有多少涨幅，现有盈利足够支持1200的价位。

银行不借钱主要是因为需求问题，总的说来，债务还在DELEVERAGE。

ByStander

这么低的利率，不需要盈利有多少涨幅，现有盈利足够支持1200的价位。

银行不借钱主要是因为需求问题 ...
AGA7d 发表于 2010-5-28 08:27

你的意思是说今后一两年四批也就是在1200左右？

AGA7d

你的意思是说今后一两年四批也就是在1200左右？
ByStander 发表于 2010-5-28 08:38

    我只能说1200以下是可以买进的点位，具体多少得看往下的盈利情况。从我掌握的情况看，往下的盈利趋势乐观。

crasher

如果说FA，
1。现在正是经济刺激计划发挥效力的顶峰。再往后刺激的效果会逐渐减低。除非有新的刺激方案出台 ...
ByStander 发表于 2010-5-28 08:21

Agree: cost cut -> lower salary income -> lower consumer spending.

The impact of euro debt crisis: budget cut -> lower government spending

Alternately government can try to raise taxes. But given the lower personal income, it is kind of like a dead end.

AGA7d

“cost cut -> lower salary income -> lower consumer spending.”
你再细看看三年的零售数据。。。

wangbin

thanks

crasher

Retail is just a part of consumer spending, right? 40%? What about the rest 60%?
I'd also consider the effect of stimulas package.
In addition, how does that compare to the change in personal income?
I'm not eager to draw a conclusion yet. But I'd be cautious to use retail as an economic indicator at this time.

AGA7d

回复 10# crasher

You need to learn a bit more - where do you come up with the 40%?

crasher

Yes I am learning here, including learning from you. :)

I remember seeing some charts showed the weights of different components in consumer spending and it changed a lot in the last 50 year, but I couldn't find it now.

Here is a quote from someone else:

"The lesson here is that relatively strong retail sales numbers do not guarantee robust consumption," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, noting that retail sales account for only two-fifths of spending.

I am not allowed to post a link here. Please look for the article today from AP titled "Consumer spending posts weak April reading".

My point is not really whether the 40% is correct. I put a question mark after 40% in my post, which I really was not sure about this number. But I'm pretty sure that retail is just a portion of spending.

AGA7d

bonddad.blogspot.com/2010/04/retail-sales-imply-strong-job-growth.html

里边有些图可供参考

netbanker

I agree with you fully.

newnewhand

cc2265

thanks

AGA7d

有分析说一季度的消费旺势和策略性违约密切相关，因为没交给银行的钱可以用来消费。同时，信用卡账户违约数目已经连续几个月下跌（所有信用卡公司），说明水下的房奴们受够了，开始造反了。

wangbin

收到

babyruth

现在的市场对欧元区非常敏感, 反而对国内经济形势麻木了. 看牛看熊还不好说.

朱坚强

如果考虑美金升值的因数，现在的股价不算太便宜，至少不比08年上半年低太多