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*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals.
SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLISH
See 05/14 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MAINTIAN PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019
- 关于中期的price target，继续维持around 1008 to 1019的预测, see 05/14 Market Recap for more details.
- 时间上，也暂时维持05/07 Market Recap提到的05/19 to 05/22时间窗口，考虑到05/22是周末，因此到05/24，都算OK啦。
- 以上price target and time window，应该以price target为准。因为05/19 to 05/22的时间窗口主要是根据June 2009 and January 2010的pullback时间算的minimum pullback time，而这次下跌的幅度和强度远远大于前两次，因此持续时间超过前两次也是合理的。基本上，关于时间窗口的推测已经算完成任务了，因为正是由于考虑到pullback的时间不够，所以前面才能比较放心的维持more pullback的forecast，而现在既然minimum pullback time已经fulfill了，所以这个时间窗口的依据已经不重要了。
WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: EXPECT LOWER LOW AHEAD BUT COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO A TRADABLE BOTTOM
今天的下跌，最重要的特征就是很多breadth信号lower low了，而通常breadth必须先higher low和SPX的lower low对比形成positive divergence以后，SPX才可能bottom，因此breadth lower low，意味着SPX will have a lower low ahead。好消息是，有几个重要的signal显示a tradable bottom could be very close。不过，again，the tradable bottom should be for aggressive traders only。
先看坏消息：
6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch，这个几乎guarantee，SPX will have a lower close ahead。
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator，record low了，是好消息也是坏消息，好消息是very oversold了，因此短期会有反弹。坏消息是，NYMO new low多半意味着SPX will have a lower low ahead。有兴趣地可以看看8.2.6a Record NYSE McClellan Oscillator Readings 2001-2005 and 8.2.6b Record NYSE McClellan Oscillator Readings 2007-2009，过去NYMO extremely low的时候都发生了什么，基本上很少是exactly bottom，very close though。
0.2.6 NYSE - Issues Advancing，new low，同样，好消息是oversold了，坏消息是多半SPX will have a lower low ahead。
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch，注意thick vertical red line，CPCI extremely high往往意味着top，而不是bottom。
Now，好消息，以下都是非常extreme的reading，所以应该比较reliable。
6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch，Major Distribution Day的rule number 3，当NYSE Down Volume to NYSE Up Volume ratio > 35的时候，a tradable bottom should be very close。
T2116，% stocks 2 std dev below MA(40)，too high。
Intermediate-term Indicator Score，就是sentimentrader的所有intermediate-term indicators的综合指数，way too low。
0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily), VIX rose more 18%, as has discussed in 05/04 Market Recap, there’re more than 80% chances a green day tomorrow.
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发表于 2010-5-20 08:05 PM
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发表于 2010-5-20 08:06 PM
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