05/12/2010 大盘回顾 （Everybody Loves Nasdaq!）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode

ATTENTION *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 12 unfilled up gaps (max was 18), 2 unfilled down gaps.  0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming. BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.3 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NADVN too high. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too high. 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. BEARISH CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP ST Model 05/06 S 1.9xATR(10) Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop 05/11 S N/A OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN     IWM DOWN     CHINA DOWN   EMERGING DOWN     EUROPEAN DOWN   4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. CANADA *?   BOND UP   *0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield, 3 reversal bars rejected at resistance so yield could pullback while bond could rebound. *ChiOsc is way too low. EURO DOWN   4.2.1 Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE Weekly): Testing major support. Also too low below MA(200) now. *ChiOsc is way too low. YEN ?   GOLD UP   4.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. *ChiOsc is way too high. OIL DOWN *3 reversal bars in a row, doesn’t look good. ENERGY DOWN   FINANCIALS DOWN   *3 reversal bars in a row, doesn’t look good. REITS UP   MATERIALS DOWN

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

SPX TIME AND TARGET ANALYSIS: THE PULLBACK COULD LAST TO 05/23

See 05/10 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: 05/06 LOW WILL BE BROKEN BUT NO EVIDENCE SAYS THIS IS A START OF A NEW BEAR MARKET

See 05/07 Market Recap for more details.

 

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: NASDAQ CUMULATIVE TICK SKYROECTED AGAIN

 

还是没有结论。昨天说了，上面table里的信号说是可能bottom了，但是pattern和时间都不对。当然，to be fair，从下面的图看，自March 2009以来，8 trading day就结束的pullback也有不少，所以这次pullback只有1 leg也不是完全没有可能。只是这些pullback的幅度相对较小，而现在这么大的幅度，却只有1 leg，这种情形，非常非常少，此外万众瞩目的resistance是在1181 to 1186之间，所以还是暂时维持expecting a 2nd leg down的forecast。

 

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary提到了WOW，前4次提到WOW是05/03 Market Recap, 04/29 Market Recap, 04/20 Market Recap and 04/14 Market Recap。下面是今天的WOW。Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative Tick extremely high，意味着全天几乎没人卖，全部都在买，所以有点过于bullish了。不过，如果WOW一次两次，那应该，毕竟很少见，这么多次了，也可能意味着Nasdaq的交易特性有所改变，所以我不sure是否说明什么问题。

 

oda

IMeMyself

Shafa

hutongchuanzi

ding!

ddr

Alchemist

acura

shafa.

oda

坐着沙发, 慢慢看

try_again

Up

萧秋水

辛苦了,多谢!!!

coppereye

WOW!

falcone

thanks a lot

soulvirus

outer

xian ding zai kan :(13):

Prada!

thanks! but don't know what WOW is?

wnd4

thanks

yuliang

ding. does it mean we can try to short when it approach 1180 and cover if it is above 1188?

n748

Hopefully, (I said it yesterday), WOW still has that magic. It seems bears need to be more patient. Market is extremely biased to bull side. Not sure whether there will be a shift in this sentiment some time soon.

navybean

Thanks!

weigoodone01