05/11/2010 大盘回顾 （2 Reversal Bars in a Row）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode

ATTENTION 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 11 unfilled up gaps (max was 18), 2 unfilled down gaps.  0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming. BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.3 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NADVN too high. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too high. 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Bottomed? *0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. BEARISH CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP ST Model 05/06 S 1.9xATR(10) Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop 05/11 S N/A *Better use this setup as a guide instead of strictly following it. Since it’s now in sell mode, so be careful long and perhaps to short any bounces is not a very bad idea. OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN     IWM DOWN     CHINA DOWN   EMERGING DOWN     EUROPEAN DOWN   4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. CANADA DOWN   *2 reversal bars in a row, doesn’t look good. BOND UP   *0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield, 2 reversal bars rejected at resistance so yield could pullback while bond could rebound. EURO DOWN   4.2.1 Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE Weekly): Testing major support. Also too low below MA(200) now. YEN ?   ChiOsc is a little too high. GOLD UP   4.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Also there’s a small Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $121.96. *ChiOsc is a little too high. OIL DOWN *2 reversal bars in a row, doesn’t look good. ENERGY DOWN   *2 reversal bars in a row, doesn’t look good. FINANCIALS DOWN   *2 reversal bars in a row, doesn’t look good. REITS UP   MATERIALS DOWN

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

SPX TIME AND TARGET ANALYSIS: THE PULLBACK COULD LAST TO 05/23

See 05/10 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: 05/06 LOW WILL BE BROKEN BUT NO EVIDENCE SAYS THIS IS A START OF A NEW BEAR MARKET

See 05/07 Market Recap for more details.

 

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: 2 REVERSAL BARS IN A ROW, DOESN’T LOOK GOOD

 

今天没啥说的，暂时维持expect a 2nd leg down的forecast (See 05/10 Market Recap for more details)，不过，这只是根据过去的一般规律来说的。除了pullback的时间相较June 2009 and January 2010来说较短，因此可能pullback没完以外(time not enough)，我并没有其他的evidences to support this view，反而从上面的table看，信号更支持the market has bottomed。因此还得看明天。

 

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，Spinning Top plus hollow red bar，这样就是2 reversal bars in a row，因此pullback的可能性比较大。如果注意看上面的table的话，类似的2 reversal bars in a row的情况很多，所以总体感觉不是很好。

 

 

明天如果大跌confirm今天的2 reversal bar的话（注意是如果哈），那要小心，很可能是the 2nd leg down，有可能的理论target （不是说明天就到哈），见下面的图，1008 to 1016 area。

 

brcm

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