05/05/2010 大盘回顾 （More Signals Arguing for a Rebound）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode

ATTENTION 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 15 unfilled up gaps (max was 18), 2 unfilled down gaps.  0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming. BULLISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH new high could mean SPX new high ahead. 0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily): More than 20% above MA(10). *0.1.2 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals: NAMO oversold. *6.4.6b QQQQ Hollow Red Bar Watch: Bottomed? BEARISH 04/20 Market Recap: Record high Climax Buying. 04/20 Market Recap: Weekly Bearish Engulfing could mean a top. 0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: Diamond Top, target $114.38. CONCLUSION 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, although the primary sell signal is not yelling yet, but sometimes NYSI and BPSPX sell signals did work, so be careful here.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model *Short tomorrow if: 1. SPY breaks below today’s low at $115.97. AND 2. SPY tomorrow’s open > tomorrow’s close. The stop loss will be 1.9 x ATR(10). Be careful, as I’m not sure if the timing is good to sell short here. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop     VIX MA ENV       OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ *DOWN   *Confirmed bearish 1-2-3 formation, so the trend is down. IWM *DOWN   *Confirmed bearish 1-2-3 formation, so the trend is down. CHINA DOWN   EMERGING DOWN   EUROPEAN DOWN   CANADA *?   *Breakdown below a huge consolidation area, doesn’t look good. BOND UP   ChiOsc is a little too high plus black bar, could pullback. EURO DOWN   YEN DOWN     GOLD UP   4.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Also there’s a small Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $121.96. OIL *DOWN *Bearish 1-2-3 formation or Double Top, target $36.68. ENERGY UP   FINANCIALS *DOWN   *Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.29. REITS UP MATERIALS DOWN

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLISH

See 04/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: COULD BE A CYCLE BOTTOM AROUND 05/07 TO 05/10

 

05/07 and 05/10有几个cycle due date，plus 04/16 Market Recap提到的，05/05, 05/06, o5/07都是重要的Gann Day，其中05/06还是重要的solar term date，因此很可能大盘会在这些日子里反转。目前看起来，这些日子像是cycle bottom。

 

1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily), 1 cycle due on 05/10.

 

 

1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min), 2 cycles due on 05/07 and 05/10.

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD OR THE MARKET COULD BE TOPPED

See 04/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A REBOUND SOON BUT AFTER THAT USUALLY THERE’LL BE A 2ND LEG DOWN

 

短期的forecast，今天的After Bell Quick Summary已经说了，expect a rebound within a day or two，不过after that usually there’ll be another leg down。下面的图简单的演示了比较大的pullback的规律：usually there’re 2 legs down。目前SPX符合较大的pullback的范畴，因此expect 2 legs down at least。

 

 

下面是更多的expect a rebound的理由，给牛牛壮胆用。这里再强调一遍，market report和trading report的focus是不同的，market recap更多是提供info，因此经常看起来是against trend。Please make sure you understand how to use the table above.

 

0.1.2 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，NAMO oversold，看绿色虚线，NAMO oversold还是挺准的。

 

 

6.4.6b QQQQ Hollow Red Bar Watch， 空心红棒棒往往意味着bottom。

 

 

6.2.5b VIX Body Completely Out Of BB Watch，VIX body completely out of BB top，至少意味着a rebound the next day（见绿虚线）。再下面是简单的back test，buy at today’s close, sell at tomorrow’s close, the winning rate is 68%.

 

 

6.1.1b Extreme CPC Readings Watch，CPC >= 1.01, way too bearish，第二天有84%的机会green。

 

金牛银熊

很久没有来坐坐了，今天正好遇到刚开门，还没人就进来就先玩玩啦。。。。。。

金牛银熊

金牛银熊

金牛银熊

金牛银熊

金牛银熊

sandera

oda

ForeverExplorer

Thanks

busted

zhan wei zi

southware

沙发，

southware

Alchemist

革命形势错综复杂呀

livefreakss

busted

Cobra, we already had two legs down, the first one finished with one bar. The question is can count the whole thing as one leg or not.

exg

海神

ding

xiaochong

金牛银熊 发表于 2010-5-5 21:20

    wk,都让你占了，太贪了

X中国陆军

Cool