04/30/2010 大盘回顾 （Weekly Bearish Engulfing Means Bullish Next Week, But…）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode

ATTENTION *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 16 unfilled up gaps. (max was 18) 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH new high could mean SPX new high ahead. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. *0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCE MA(5) too low. CPCI too high, top? 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. *04/20 Market Recap: Record high Climax Buying. *04/20 Market Recap: Weekly Bearish Engulfing could mean a top. CONCLUSION *0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, although the primary sell signal is not yelling yet, but sometimes NYSI and BPSPX sell signals did work, so be careful here.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 04/29 L 1.5xATR(10) Be careful, don’t get too bullish, the uptrend is weakening. Reversal Bar     *Stopped out of long position with loss. NYMO Sell     Non-Stop     VIX MA ENV     *Stopped out of long position with loss. OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP   IWM UP   *Could be Bearish 1-2-3 formation breakdown, target $69.91. CHINA DOWN   EMERGING *?   Price overlap, so could be a failed bearish 1-2-3 formation, the trend is unclear. EUROPEAN DOWN   *Stick Sandwich, so more down? CANADA UP   *Lots negative divergence and I don’t like the BPTSX bearish crossover. BOND *?   *Breakout, the trend could be changed to up from down. EURO DOWN   *Black bar, so pullback? YEN DOWN     GOLD UP   4.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Also there’s a small Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $121.96. OIL ? ENERGY UP   FINANCIALS *?   Price overlap, so could be a failed bearish 1-2-3 formation, the trend is unclear. REITS UP MATERIALS UP

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLISH

 

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. First trading day in May, Dow up 9 of last 11.
2. Friday before Mother’s day, Dow up 9 of last 14.

The chart below is the May Seasonality (courtesy of sentimentrader) for SPX and NDX.

 

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 05/06

The next potential turn date is 05/06 (+-) which could either be a top or a bottom depending on how the market marches to that date. See 04/16 Market Recap for more details.

 

1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)，下周and下下周有2个cycle due，05/03 and 05/10，和上面提到的05/06一起，我的猜测是，他们可能意味着cycle top，对，没写错，是cycle top。理由见下面的intermediate-term session。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD OR THE MARKET COULD BE TOPPED

 

还是看roller coaster ahead (see 04/26 Market Recap for more details)。不过，今天的报告将提升警告级别，不排除已经是an intermediate-term top的可能性(or very close)。理由是本周形成的Weekly Bearish Engulfing。下面的图是自1988年以来所有SPY Weekly Bearish Engulfing的情况(red bar, only Bearish Engulfing formed at 10 week high are listed)。总共11个case，只有2个case，后续又大涨特涨，其余，也是是说82% chances，the market has topped (or very close)。

 

 

可能还有不少同学记得我的关于Bearish Engulfing的规律吧？Bearish Engulfing往往意味着bullish the next bar (in our case means bullish the next week)，下面是简单的back test，sell short at Friday’s close, buy cover at the next Friday’s close，只有36%的winning rate。

 

 

当然，如果hold过下周，buy cover at the next next Friday’s close，那就是82%的winning rate了。所以，结论是bullish next week，但是not so bull friendly after the next week。

 

 

下面的图看一下，Climax Buying (where a stock makes a new 52 week high but then closes below the previous week’s close.) among SPX stocks reached a record high last week，看看图中的竖线就知道了，这个Climax Buying不怎么牛牛friendly，虽然也不说明下周会red。所以again，小心。

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE GREEN MONDAY BUT MORE PULLBACKS AHEAD

 

周五的After Bell Quick Summary提到了2个green Monday的理由，这里是第3个理由，0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，VIX rose more 19% on Friday，下面是简单的back test，buy at close sell at the next day’s close，牛牛有81%的机会。

 

 

0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch，这个是market可能top了的另一个证据，看看粗红线，每次CPCI > 2以后都发了生了什么？至少，这意味着一个短期的顶部，是吧？

 

vinna

Sf

always

2nd

maomi

3rd
did not notice i could safa today till finish reading the whole report

Thanks Cobra!

LadyLucy

trueself

thanks!

knz98

Thanks.

rocky

good analysis. thanks!

大牛Steve

Thanks!

oda

thanks

永恒罗马

ruoshui

Thank you!

ranchgirl

thanks laoda!

helen1

THANKS.

claudio

难啊难啊

pangpang

工作辛苦，周末愉快！

ranchgirl

"bullish next week，但是not so bull friendly after the next week。"

ranchgirl

1. First trading day in May, Dow up 9 of last 11.
   2. Friday before Mother’s day, Dow up 9 of last 14.

Alchemist

comprehensive and meticulous as always, great work!

ranchgirl

1. First trading day in May, Dow up 9 of last 11.
   2. Friday before Mother’s day, Dow up 9 of last 14.